Turkish defense minister sends dual Aegean message
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler emphasized the importance of reducing tensions in the Aegean Sea while simultaneously promoting the “Blue Homeland” doctrine, which envisages Turkish influence over vast swaths of the Eastern Mediterranean at the expense of countries in region, like Greece and Cyprus.
PM calls for higher EU defence spending, closer cooperation with NATO
The European Union needs to boost its defence spending, invest in its defence industry and increase cooperation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said after meeting NATO’s chief in Athens on Tuesday.
PM Mitsotakis in Nicosia for Greece-Cyprus Intergovernmental Summit and the Greece-Cyprus-Jordan Trilateral Summit
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will visit Nicosia on Wednesday for the second Intergovernmental Summit of Greece-Cyprus and for the Trilateral Summit of Greece-Cyprus-Jordan. Defence, energy, environment, health, education, culture, digital policy, research-innovation-technology, labour and social security, rule of law, justice, economy, social policy, shipping are the areas of cooperation that will be discussed by the competent ministers of Greece and Cyprus.
European Commission approves Greece’s 2025 budget plan
The European Commission has given a positive evaluation of Greece’s 2025 budget plan and medium-term fiscal strategy, according to the autumn package of the European Semester released on Tuesday. This marks the first assessment under the new economic governance framework.
https://www.amna.gr/en/article/865781/European-Commission-approves-Greeces-2025-budget-plan
ATHEX: Bourse builds on previous days of gains
The lowest turnover of the last 11 weeks did not stop the benchmark of the Greek stock market from recording another day of growth, albeit small, on Tuesday, making it five in a row. It has now put clear blue water between itself and the 1,400-point psychological milestone. Corporate results for the third quarter continued to flow in, with one the companies benefiting from such news being Hellenic Exchanges, which runs the stock market.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1254606/athex-bourse-builds-on-previous-days-of-gains
KATHIMERINI: Ankara suddenly stirs the “calm waters” of the Aegean
TA NEA: Wiretappings scandal: Lawsuit by PASOK leader Androulakis against the individual who placed the order for the wiretappings
EFIMERIDA TON SYNTAKTON: The government is eager to please NATO: Eager idiots!
RIZOSPASTIS: Trains almost clashed at Korinos in Pieria
KONTRA NEWS: 1,033,514 notes for debts owed to the National Social Security Fund
DIMOKRATIA: The government acts as a useful idiot and hands NATO everything it asked for without getting anything in return
NAFTEMPORIKI: “Automated” tax declarations to be available before Easter
DRIVING THE DAY
MANFRED WEBER KEEPS WINNING: MEPs will cast their votes on the new European Commission at midday, paving the way for Ursula von der Leyen’s second era to officially begin Sunday. The mood in Strasbourg is calm; she has the numbers. (More detailed political breakdown from Max Griera below).
The power of WE: The start of the Commission is also a triumph, though, for Manfred Weber, the bearded Bavarian MEP — because of the way we got here. For years Weber has been hauling, coaxing and shoving the center-right EPP group he leads to the right, hoping to mainstream Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, which has neo-fascist roots, but which Weber sees as resolutely pro-EU, pro-Ukraine and pro-rule-of-law, thus meeting his self-appointed criteria for cooperation at the heart of the EU project he cherishes.
Shape of U(rsula): The shape of the parliamentary bloc that will vote the next European Commission into existence today — with all 24 of Meloni’s MEPs voting in favor, plus traditional allies the Socialists and liberals and even some Greens — shows that Weber pulled off a masterstroke.
The Manfred Majority: “My majority, if I may say so, is [becoming] reality and that makes me happy because we need stability in a broader sense in the European Parliament, otherwise we cannot deliver on the interest for Europe,” an exuberant Weber said at a press conference in Strasbourg.
Why it matters: Weber emerges from the 2024 election year as by far the main powerbroker in the European Parliament, able to heavily influence all of von der Leyen’s new EU laws.
As stable as a see-saw: That’s not so much because things will be stable, but rather because for each proposal coming out of the Berlaymont, he can either look left to the EPP’s traditional centrist allies and the Greens … or look to his right-to-far-right alternative. In a Parliament where coalitions are never set in stone, but rather conjured up vote by vote, this ambiguity suits Weber very well.
The king in Parliament is a man who says he wants to head off the rise of anti-EU populists by doubling down on curbs to illegal migration, red-tape slashing and pro-business policies. In other words, leaning into exactly what they gripe and shout about the most.
Dances with wolves: This year the EPP leadership has separately courted the ECR and the Greens, committed (on paper) to a coalition with the Socialists and liberals, made a side deal with the ECR to give Meloni’s commissioner a key role and ruthlessly pushed it through Parliament, only for von der Leyen this week to insist the Greens remain part of her “pro-European majority.”
Feeling confused? Feeling betrayed? The ever-polite Weber, and perma-smiling von der Leyen are famously hard to read. Maybe strategic ambiguity is precisely the point.
So why does Weber always win? He’s less beholden to national political leaders than his counterparts atop the Socialist and Renew groups; and he has the backing of the biggest group in Parliament — which he has steadily consolidated power over since his humiliation in 2019 when he failed to become Commission president.
Pons upon a time: At that point Spain’s Esteban González Pons was poised to take over — but today Weber faces no challenger in Parliament — and likely won’t for another two years.
But cracks are appearing: Not everyone in the EPP is happy with Weber. There’s an early-stage criminal investigation into some high-ranking EPP staffers, a public tiff with his top party official, and grumblings from Polish, Irish and Spanish quarters about his rightward drift, which could stymie his plans to continue as party (as opposed to group) president at a congress in Valencia next year.
The odd couple: Today Weber hands von der Leyen her victory — but on his terms. The strained Weber-von der Leyen relationship is one to watch.
VDL 2
WHO BACKS THE NEW COMMISSIONERS, WHO DOESN’T: Officially, the EPP, the S&D, and Renew will all vote in favor of the Commission after last week’s agreement. But there will be outliers, writes Max Griera.
EPP rebels: The Spanish and Slovenian members of the EPP will either vote against or abstain in protest against Teresa Ribera and Marta Kos, respectively.
S&D rebels: The French Socialists and some Belgians will vote against, and the Germans will abstain, because Italy’s hard-right nominee Raffaele Fitto has retained his executive vice president title.
ECR split: The ECR, which has backed most commissioners to date in individual evaluations, is also divided. Each delegation has the right to decide for itself. Meloni’s Italians and the Flemish NVA (together, they have 27 MEPs) will vote in favor, with most others against.
Green split: The 53-strong group is divided in two.
And the rest: The Patriots, Sovereigntists and Left are expected to vote against.
How to watch like a pro: Unlike the secret ballot on von der Leyen as Commission president in July, where a certain minimum threshold of votes was needed (she got a comfy 401), today’s vote is an easier hurdle — and it’s not secret. The 27 commissioners only need a “majority of votes cast” to go in their favor in order to forget the Parliament exists for the next five years. I mean, in order to be confirmed as commissioners.
Our best guess: It will pass, but it could be tight. We’ll be back Thursday to gloat/explain how we got it so wrong … (Note to editor: Delete as appropriate so I look clever.)
VDL’S NEXT MOVE: Von der Leyen is expected to visit the German capital in the next few days, our Berlin Playbook colleagues report, to catch up with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and CDU leader Friedrich Merz and discuss the EU budget. The plan is for significantly more cash to be used for joint defense, the Industrial Deal and the green transition.
TRADE
SOUTH AMERICA DEAL ON THE ROPES, AS POLAND SAYS NO: Von der Leyen’s ambition to kick off her new term by signing a gargantuan international trade deal has gone askew after Warsaw swung behind France in an EU trade fight of continental proportions.
Beefing: Paris is dead set against the EU’s pending trade deal with the so-called Mercosur bloc of South American countries — and French MPs confirmed their stance in a whopping vote on a resolution Tuesday, Giorgio Leali writes. The same day, Poland’s government also flipped to France’s camp. Both countries have politically powerful farmers who fear a flood of cheaper imports undercutting them — and could rock their governments if they feel hard done by.
Is Mercosur a dinosaur? Even if the current opponents (France, Poland, Austria and Ireland) don’t technically have enough heft to block the trade pact in Brussels yet, it’s considered a no-no to do deals against the wishes of powerful countries like France and Poland. That means it’s politically extinct — at least in its current form.
FROM A DINOSAUR TO THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: Looming over all this is one Donald J. Trump. But after months of promising there was a plan in place for his potential return to the White House, Brussels now seems to mostly be waiting things out hoping he pulls his punches, rather than announcing preemptive strikes. Barbara Moens, Camille Gijs and Jacopo Barigazzi have the story.
Trump’s new tariff warrior: The president-elect picked little-known Jamieson Greer as his U.S. trade representative. My Stateside colleagues have a write-up.
EU OMBUDSMAN RACE
DUTCH “FANATIC” MAKES HIS PITCH: Reinier van Zutphen, a candidate to succeed Emily O’Reilly as the next EU Ombudsman, wants to expand the job description to include more rule-of-law cases. In the European Parliament’s press saloon, with the scent of old cigarette smoke in the air, van Zutphen pitched himself as a pugnacious defender of citizens’ rights with a proven record as the Netherlands’ national ombudsman. There, he’s still working to right the wrongs of a childcare welfare scandal that brought down the government and made him a self-declared “fanatic” about maladministration.
No real teeth — but a strong bite: “Rule of law is not something exotic; it is something that people must feel in their daily life,” van Zutphen said in an interview in Strasbourg, where he’s trying to shore up support ahead of the election next month. “If I think I should bite, I do,” said the 64-year-old, promising to relentlessly check whether institutions follow up on his (not legally binding) recommendations. Solving problems is mostly not done by taking a purely legalistic approach but by improving the way governments treat people and a good helping of “reasonableness,” he argued.
Stiff competition: Van Zutphen could be facing an uphill battle, as two other candidates — Austrian U.N. human rights expert Claudia Mahler and Portugal’s Teresa Anjinho, a former deputy ombudsman — were backed by Parliament’s big groups.
Ombudsman-ifesting: “I think I’ll be able to be in the last two,” van Zutphen said. Reinier means “strong adviser” in old German, he noted.
ROMANIAN ELECTION FALLOUT
BRUSSELS HAS QUESTIONS FOR TIKTOK BOSS: Renew Europe leader Valérie Hayer wants TikTok’s CEO to front up to the Parliament to explain the platform’s role in Sunday’s Romanian presidential election, as researchers warn of covert activity on thousands of fake accounts. Nick Vinocur and Pieter Haeck have the details.
Putin’s fingerprints: The shock first-round win for far-right Călin Georgescu has triggered concerns over whether the contest was fair. Some skeptics pointed to Georgescu’s wild popularity on social media, particularly on TikTok, which appeared boosted by bot-like behavior from accounts amplifying his ultranationalist messages, as evidence of Russian interference.
Don’t say you weren’t warned: But it turns out Europe’s foremost independent election monitors were well aware of the risks facing Romanian democracy this year. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) published an assessment in April, which warned: “Many interlocutors expressed concerns about the use of ‘bots’ and other sponsoring tools, including by external actors, to manipulate information in social networking platforms in order to mislead or disinform the public during the campaign.” The report called for “24 long-term observers” to be sent to follow both the presidential and parliamentary elections.
But no OSCE monitoring mission ever took place. My POLITICO colleague Tim Ross, who’s been digging into this, asked spokesperson Katya Andrusz why not. “The annual election calendar across the vast OSCE region is often very full and we have limited resources, both human and financial,” Andrusz replied. “In this particularly heavy election year, we also had some large-scale observations that were especially demanding on ODIHR’s budget and human resources. We are therefore not observing the elections in Romania and have no comment to make on the process.”
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL-LEBANON CEASE-FIRE: Israel and Lebanon agreed to a cease-fire on Tuesday, ending 14 months of fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. France and the U.S. will work with Lebanon and Israel to maintain peace at their shared border. More here.
REKINDLING THE FRIENDSHIP: Donald Trump’s team is discussing pursuing direct talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
KULEBA NOT HOPEFUL: Former Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has no hope that Trump can broker a peace deal, telling my colleague Jamie Dettmer that Putin was in no mood to strike one, and Trump instead risks collapsing Ukrainian front lines.
XI’S CRACKDOWN LATEST: China’s Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun is under investigation in the latest corruption-related scandal to hit the army, the FT reports this morning, citing U.S. officials.
IN OTHER NEWS
LE PEN’S MOMENT OF TRUTH: French far-right leader Marine Le Pen will today find out when she should expect a verdict in a case concerning allegations of embezzling EU funds. My colleague Victor Goury-Laffont has a curtain-raiser.
SCHOLZ NFI: Regional security around the Baltic Sea is on the agenda today, with Nordic and Baltic heads of government meeting for a summit in Sweden. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will be the special guest — but German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hasn’t been invited.
Officially, it’s because the German election is coming up.
Unofficially, certain corners are annoyed that while Paris and London were invited when U.S. President Joe Biden visited Berlin last month, Eastern and Northern European representatives weren’t, Hans von der Burchard reports.
Trouble in the heartland: The collapse of Germany’s government and the upcoming election could hardly have come at a worse time for the country’s automotive sector. Carmakers are in crisis while suppliers are laying off workers, putting huge pressure on the economy and on politicians, reports Nette Nöstlinger.
MERKEL’S MEMOIR: Seb Starcevic and Nette have flipped through former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s new memoir, and have the highlights. Among them, several charming anecdotes about Vladimir Putin.
ALBANIA PROTESTS: Albanian opposition MPs and activists blocked the main streets in Tirana for hours Tuesday, accusing Edi Rama’s government of corruption and demanding it be replaced by a technocratic caretaker Cabinet until next year’s election. Police fired tear gas and water cannon to disperse them, Nektaria Stamouli reports. The leaders of Albania’s two biggest opposition parties, Sali Berisha and Ilir Meta, have been charged with corruption offences which both accuse Rama of orchestrating.