Measured response to Turkish map
Athens adopted a measured response on Tuesday to Turkey’s controversial submission of maritime maps to UNESCO that effectively divide the Aegean Sea, with officials dismissing the move as legally meaningless while closely monitoring Ankara’s actions.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1272625/measured-response-to-turkish-map/
Former PMs decry gov’t foreign policy
Two former Greek prime ministers delivered sharp criticism of the current government’s foreign policy during a book presentation on Tuesday at the War Museum in Athens, creating fresh tensions within Greece’s ruling conservative party.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1272674/former-pms-decry-govt-foreign-policy
Parliament to vote on Tempe train crash inquiry
Parliament will convene Wednesday to decide on forming an investigative committee into the deadly Tempe train collision. Lawmakers will first debate three proposals concerning the February 28, 2023, rail disaster that killed 57 people, mostly students.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1272679/parliament-to-vote-on-tempe-train-crash-inquiry
Greece fined €415 mln over farm subsidies; state to cover costs
The European Commission has imposed a €415.05 million fine on Greece for poor management and inadequate oversight of European Union agricultural subsidies, officials confirmed Tuesday.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1272648/greece-fined-e415-mln-over-farm-subsidies
ATHEX: Fourth day of decline for bourse
Developments in the Middle East and the expected profit-taking after last week’s highs continued to put pressure on Greek stock prices, as the benchmark lost almost 1% of its value on Tuesday. This was the fourth consecutive downward session for the main index, but it continues to hold the psychologically important level of 1,800 points. Yet as the clouds of war gather over Israel and Iran, the flight of investors away from peripheral markets such as the Greek one is almost certain.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1272631/athex-fourth-day-of-decline-for-bourse
Due to a strike in the distribution of the press there is no newspaper circulation today
DRIVING THE DAY: IRAN ON THE BRINK
ISRAEL-IRAN WAR EXPOSES EU’S WEAKNESSES: There are few global crises more dangerous than the spiraling conflict between Israel and Iran, and arguably none on which the European Union is less able to bring influence to bear. That’s a pretty grim situation, given the runaway speed at which events are moving in the Middle East and the potential consequences for the rest of the world.
Recap: Millions of people are attempting to flee Tehran, even as Iranian forces fire more missiles at Israel, which launched its offensive five days ago. Reports from the BBC and others last night suggested Donald Trump is weighing up military action, while sending more warplanes to the region.
In the last 24 hours or so, Trump has demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” … boasted that the U.S. knows where Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is hiding out but won’t “kill” him “for now” … urged everyone to leave Tehran immediately … denied he is working for a “ceasefire” … and said he is planning a “real end” to Iran’s nuclear problem.
America’s definitely not involved yet, right? Trump’s torrent left little oxygen for U.S. officials to keep denying their involvement in the war, though Washington has repeatedly insisted it is not part of the Israeli bombardment of Iranian targets. “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” Trump said, apparently speaking for the U.S. rather than for Israel (which said the same thing earlier).
Who knows? Is Trump’s escalating rhetoric a preamble to military action? Is he planning a total regime change? And if so, who would take over? Or is it just a way to intensify pressure on Tehran to give up its nuclear program? Has Trump even decided?
Or maybe he’s been outfoxed by Netanyahu, as Jamie Dettmer posits in this analysis.
In the dark: The EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas (happy birthday, by the way) said she’d spoken to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who assured her America did not want to get dragged into war with Iran. If the U.S. does become embroiled, “it will definitely drag the region into broader conflict and this is in nobody’s interest,” Kallas told reporters on Tuesday.
Also guessing: Germany’s leader Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Britain’s Keir Starmer have spent their time at the G7 in Canada dining with The Donald and discussing the Middle East, among other things. Despite that, they can’t agree on what’s going on either.
Macron declared Trump was working on a ceasefire, which POTUS denied in colorful terms: “Publicity seeking President Emmanuel Macron … always gets it wrong.”
No drama: Keir Starmer assured British journalists traveling with him (POLITICO’s Stefan Boscia among them) that he had no doubt Trump wanted to de-escalate: “There is nothing the president said that suggests he’s about to get involved in this conflict,” Starmer argued.
Merz said the opposite: “There could be such a further development,” he told the Axel Springer Global Reporters network, which includes POLITICO. “But we will have to wait and see. The decisions will probably be made in the near future.”
In the meantime … The organizations representing critical networks across the U.S. are bracing for Iranian cyberattacks, POLITICO’s Maggie Miller reports.
STEP FORWARD, TRUE LEADERS OF EUROPE
DON’T RUSH BACK: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who traveled to Canada to join world leaders who largely failed to recruit Trump to their causes, faces a moody reception when she gets home. The cause of irritation among some EU countries is VDL’s decision to call Benjamin Netanyahu after he ordered the bombardment of Iran and then declare her support on social media for Israel’s right to defend itself.
A “solo run”: According to several people familiar with the discussion, foreign ministers from several countries raised concerns over this issue during an emergency call to discuss the crisis on Tuesday. There is a “big difference” between the right to self-defense and launching “preemptive military action,” one of these people noted to Playbook. One accused von der Leyen of making “a solo run” with her support for Netanyahu. Others described Israel’s attacks as irresponsible.
Diplomatic niceties: Kallas, the EU’s high representative, gave a readout of that call, but despite being asked by reporters, she did not repeat von der Leyen’s comment about Israel’s right to self-defense. Instead, she emphasized numerous times that there must be a ceasefire and a diplomatic resolution.
Not unanimous: According to some accounts, foreign ministers from between 10 and 15 member countries offered at least qualified support for Israel during Tuesday’s meeting. That’s about half, a neat split.
Don’t forget Gaza: Kallas is due to report back on her review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement when ministers meet again next week. Plenty spoke up on the call to insist that the Iran war must not distract from the need for Brussels to pressure Israel to allow full humanitarian aid access to Gaza, Playbook was told.
Not slick: In Canada, von der Leyen also backed away from her proposal to lower the Russian oil price cap as part of a new wave of sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s regime. One outcome of the escalating conflict in the Middle East has been to drive the oil price up above the $60-a-barrel cap, meaning Russia is now losing out. (The EU had sought to lower the cap to $45 to catch Russia.)
Is this the line? “In the last days, we have seen the price has risen so the oil price cap does serve its function,” von der Leyen said on the sidelines of the summit on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. “At the moment, there’s little pressure on lowering the oil price cap.”
Or this? Kallas offered a completely different take: “Actually, I think we should move forward with the oil price cap, especially with the tensions in the Middle East,” she told reporters. “We shouldn’t end up in a situation where the situation in the Middle East will increase the oil prices and actually also make Russia to earn more because that means they’re able to fund their war machine in a bigger scale, so we definitely need to move on with the oil price cap.”
Trump’s call: The plan to lower the price cap is not looking good because Trump clearly doesn’t want it, several European officials told Playbook. And while Kallas and von der Leyen offer contradictory positions, what the EU thinks apparently doesn’t matter very much on this issue either. It’s Trump’s world. Until it ends, obviously.
WHAT ABOUT CHINA? The leaders meeting in Canada had been expected to pledge to implement a G7 critical minerals action plan, seeking to respond to China’s grip on the market. But their statement failed to name-check Beijing, instead obliquely mentioning “non-market policies and practices in the critical minerals sector.” Why might that be? “China has the upper hand in the short term,” Philip Andrews-Speed, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told POLITICO’s Antonia Zimmerman.
CHALKING THIS ONE UP AS A WIN: The EU and Australia overnight announced they would start negotiating a “Security and Defence Partnership” and noted their commitment to “advancing free trade negotiations,” after a meeting between von der Leyen, Costa and Aussie PM Anthony Albanese. Write-up here.
THAT’S A WRAP: POLITICO’s G7 crew have this essential summit wrap piece, going behind the scenes to detail how Trump’s G7 allies failed to convince him to sign up to a formal joint statement on Ukraine, and the workaround they came up with instead.
RUSSIAN ENERGY WOBBLE
WHAT’S KEEPING INDUSTRY UP AT NIGHT: The EU’s plan to end its reliance on Russian gas has left some in industry worrying they will still face legal consequences for breaking long-term contracts with Moscow, POLITICO’s Gabriel Gavin writes in to report.
Force majeure: The plans — seen by Gabriel and Victor Jack ahead of their publication on Tuesday — would oblige firms to declare “force majeure” on the arrangements, unless they meet specific criteria for exceptions, as part of a bid to end reliance on Russian energy by 2027.
Blame us: Companies had hoped the full legal text would provide reassurance over how they could avoid being required to pay compensation if they are no longer able to buy the gas they ordered from Russia. “We’ve deliberately formulated this legislation and used a legal basis which makes it a prohibition,” Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said during a press conference Tuesday, “and thereby a force majeure situation for the companies in question — and that means they are not legally liable, it is not them that is breaking a contract.”
Not everyone is convinced. The proposal relies on a “bit of a shaky premise for the force majeure,” which is supposed to refer to a situation nobody could have predicted, said Katja Yafimava of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies gas research program. “The European Commission has been talking for now three years about various ways to ban Russian gas … it’s hard to see the element of … surprise.”
TODAY IN STRASBOURG
PRIDE OF BUDAPEST: The European Parliament will today debate the ban imposed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on the Pride march in Budapest, slated for June 28, POLITICO’s Max Griera reports.
Wait, is it legal now? Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony announced on Monday that the march will be organized by the municipality, which means the police can’t stop it. “It’s time to show that we are proud of our freedom, and to show that in this city, no one can be a second-rate citizen,” the mayor said on social media.
Visitors incoming: Around 70 MEPs are expected to attend, including Socialists and Democrats Chair Iratxe García, Renew Europe Chair Valérie Hayer and Greens Co-Chair Terry Reintke. ( The right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists and the center-right European People’s Party said they will not send an official delegation.) The far-right Patriots for Europe group, of which Orbán’s Fidesz is a member, is already accusing the international guests of foreign interference.
IMMUNITY VOTE DELAY: The European Parliament’s legal affairs committee (JURI) has postponed a vote on whether to lift the immunity of Italian Left MEP Ilaria Salis, who spent more than a year in a Hungarian jail. The vote was initially scheduled for June 24 but is now expected to take place in mid-July or September, her team told Playbook’s Elena Giordano.
Hungary trial fears: If her immunity is lifted, Salis could be extradited to Hungary, where she faces trial for allegedly assaulting neo-fascists during the 2023 “Day of Honor.” “I hoped I had left that experience behind,” she told Elena. “But after a year of criticizing the Hungarian regime in Parliament, I fear the retaliation would be even harsher if I return.”
SPOTTED: Alternative for Germany staffers having a bash at the Havel building rooftop, blasting German electro-folk while drinking wine at sunset.
ELSEWHERE IN STRASBOURG: Meanwhile, U.K. Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood will today make the case for reshaping the European Convention on Human Rights. “If a foreign national commits a serious crime, they should expect to be removed from the country,” she is expected to tell ambassadors at a meeting of the Council of Europe’s Committee of Ministers, Sam Blewett reports.
IN OTHER NEWS
WELCOMING NEW NEIGHBORS: The German Cabinet will approve several new ambassador positions today, including key posts in Brussels. Thomas Ossowski, currently the EU ambassador in Turkey and previously the German political and security committee ambassador, will become Berlin’s new top EU envoy, reports my Berlin Playbook colleague Hans von der Burchard. Germany’s new NATO ambassador will be Detlef Wächter, who was previously the ambassador and has extensive experience working on security issues at NATO and the chancellery.
CHARGING OLD NEIGHBORS: The EU is considering taxing foreign travelers to pay back part of the €350 billion common debt that was issued to finance its recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, Gregorio Sorgi reports.
ALTERED CARBON: A draft Commission proposal would allow the limited use of carbon credits from projects in other countries to meet EU climate goals, Karl Mathiesen and Zia Weise reveal.
THE KIDS ARE KINDA ALL RIGHT: EU members account for 15 of the top 25 countries for youth engagement in politics, according to a new tracker to be released today by the European Partnership for Democracy. The Global Youth Participation Index, which examines more than 130 countries, found that average youth voter turnout in the EU is around 52 percent — higher than the global average of 40 percent, but not exactly flying.
WHAT’S WORRYING ATHENS: Turkey has claimed half of the Aegean Sea falls under its area of marine influence, escalating a territorial spat with Greece over where to put ocean conservation zones, Nektaria Stamouli reports.
Also worrying Athens: The European Commission has hit Greece with a fine of nearly €400 million for mismanaging EU farm funding and inadequate controls, Nektaria also reports. The fine follows a mammoth Greek farm fraud scandal that is being probed by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, and was the subject of a POLITICO investigation earlier this year.
LUKASHENKO TO HAVE KELLOGG FOR BREAKFAST? Donald Trump’s Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg is planning to travel to Belarus in the coming days to meet with authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko, Reuters reports.
TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK BUT THE PARTY DON’T STOP: Donald Trump will extend the deadline for TikTok to divest its U.S. assets by another 90 days, the White House said Tuesday, marking the third time enforcement of the 2024 law has been punted. Details here.