Reshuffle on the cards as PM seeks new governmental recipe
The negative result for ruling center-right New Democracy on Sunday, coupled with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ decision to cancel his visit to Jordan scheduled for Tuesday, and to appear instead on Alpha TV’s main newscast, demonstrates an intent to practice what he preached about a “new starting point,” in which a reshuffle can be a key part.
SYRIZA members urge overture to center-left parties following election results
Two members of SYRIZA urged the main leftist opposition on Monday to make an overture to the other center-left parties, PASOK and New Left, with the aim of “regenerating the broader left and progressive [political] space.”
Greek annual inflation rate slows to 2.4% in May 2024
The inflation rate in Greece slowed significantly in May 2024, according to figures released by Greece’s independent statistical authority ELSTAT on Monday on the consumer price index (CPI). The annual increase in the CPI was 2.4% compared with May 2023, when the annual rate of change of the CPI was 2.8%.
https://www.amna.gr/en/article/825994/Greek-annual-inflation-rate-slows-to-24-in-May-2024
ATHEX: Index losses offset by closing bell
Stocks at Athinon Avenue offset the early post-election losses on Monday to keep the benchmark in the black by the closing, even though the majority closed in the red. Banks – led by Eurobank – had a positive day and contributed significantly to the recovery of the main and blue chip indexes, though turnover left a lot to be desired.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1241107/athex-index-losses-offset-by-closing-bell
KATHIMERINI: PM seeks new governmental recipe
TA NEA: Decoding the result of the euro-elections
EFIMERIDA TON SYNTAKTON: Who “fed” the record abstention in the euro-elections
AVGI: Mitsotakis did not get the message
RIZOSPASTIS: The Greek Communist Party is stronger where the heart of the people beats
KONTRA NEWS: Government reshuffle of despair with a right turn
DIMOKRATIA: Government in panic after the electoral collapse
NAFTEMPORIKI: Political tornado sweeps the euro and Eurozone bonds
DRIVING THE DAY: 50 SHADES OF VON DER LEYEN
URSULA AS THE CENTER’S SAFE WORD: The irony we still struggle to wrap our heads around is that voters’ call for mutiny only seems to make the institutional power structure more entrenched. Ursula von der Leyen looks set to clinch the European Council’s backing for a second term as Commission president, although her support in Parliament might be another matter.
Macron submits: The Elysée spent months flirting with other possible EU executives, including Thierry Breton, Mario Draghi and even Roberta Metsola. But French President Emmanuel Macron, diminished by domestic politics, now appears to be coming home to back for a second term the woman he helped install in the Berlaymont five years ago. Clea Caulcutt, Giorgio Leali and Barbara Moens have more.
‘There is no doubt now over the political color of the next Commission presidency,’ a diplomat told our colleagues. But we would beg to differ a bit. When it comes to the European Parliament, von der Leyen will need to operate in a political gray zone to recruit the 361 MEPs she needs to back her for a second term.
Arm-twisting: European People’s Party Secretary-General Thanasis Bakolas is planning a “good old-fashioned American whipping” operation to push von der Leyen’s candidacy through the Parliament — a term of art for sweet-talking and arm-twisting lawmakers into backing a controversial measure.
‘The hardest nut to crack,’ in the words of one EU diplomat, will be finding a way to get Europe’s wilting Greens on board without alienating the conservatives von der Leyen will need.
Parliament’s new right-tilting majority, including von der Leyen’s own EPP, campaigned on dialing back climate ambitions, including reversing the ban on the combustion engine. But too many concessions to the right — especially a bid for allies of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — will alienate not just the Greens but also the Socialists and Democrats. Karl Mathiesen and Barbara Moens walk us through the complicated math.
NOW READ — FRANCE’S FAR RIGHT LINES UP AGAINST MACRON: A day after the French president called a snap national election, some of the country’s leading far-right figures — Marion Maréchal of the Reconquest party and her aunt Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella of the National Rally — discussed the possibility of teaming up in a political showdown that could be crucial for the future of both France and the EU. It remains unclear if Reconquest’s founder Eric Zemmour is on board. POLITICO’s Victor Goury-Laffont has the details.
TOP JOBS
KEEPING IT CLASSY TILL THE END: European Council President Charles Michel wants to ban von der Leyen from the top job talks.
COSTA IS OFFICIALLY ON THE TABLE: Party of European Socialists Secretary-General Giacomo Filibeck explicitly name-checked ex-Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa while noting that the center-left party expects to be able to nominate the next European Council president, Eddy Wax reports.
THE EMERGING POWER BROKERS: The EU’s top political families are settling on their horse-traders-in-chief …
In the center-right corner … Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis are on track to be the EPP’s top hagglers, Barbara Moens reports.
… and in the center-left: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, PES announced.
Ruling herself in (in case you didn’t already know): Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said she would “very seriously” consider a Commission job.
Ruling herself out: Ex-Belgian PM (and incoming MEP) Sophie Wilmès ruled out becoming the EU’s foreign policy chief, Camille Gijs reports.
MEN OF BUBBLE TWITTER
TALKING HEADS FACE OFF: The Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman emerged from a dinner with six diplomats on Monday night and got into a spat with The Good Lobby’s Alberto Alemanno.
The two endlessly opinionated commentators appear to have landed on opposite sides of the Brexit/Sánchez divide on Macron’s snap election and traded epithets like “hyperbolic” and “very silly” on X — truly fightin’ words in the staid Brussels bubble.
It’s too early for Playbook to call a winner in this match, but we’re confident The Economist’s Stanley Pignal will eventually devise a model to sort it all out.
ELECTORAL SCHADENFREUDE: Qatargate suspect Francesco Giorgi reposted an article about the defeat in the Belgian parliament election of the original judge in the case, Michel Claise.
MAX AND ELON: Elon Musk apparently made German MEP Maximilian Krah feel heard. “Why is there such a negative reaction from some about AfD?” the Tesla founder and X owner tweeted on Sunday.
Asked and answered: “You’re fully right, but Germany has become a woke nightmare,” Krah replied on X on Monday. “Everyone right of Hillary Clinton is labeled ‘far-right’ and gets trouble with the domestic intelligence. We only can counter it by international publicity!”
Ex-man: Krah’s troubles with domestic intelligence and corresponding international publicity were too much for his fellow AfD members: They kicked Krah out of the European Parliament delegation on Monday.
ASSESSING THE ELECTION
GRADING THE EU CAMPAIGN: A team of 77 election observers and 10 NGOs evaluated the European Parliament election based on criteria they use to judge third countries’ votes. It’s only the second time an EU election has faced this type of scrutiny. Under the banner ElectionWatch-EU, they published preliminary findings on Monday.
The good: Public trust remains high, and the EU’s new rules for regulating online campaigning won solid praise. Citizens seem more resilient against interference.
The bad: Ongoing participation barriers for some 11 million EU citizens living in another member country.
The ugly: Election-related violence, most notably in Germany.
The caveat: We all want to know if there was any funny business at the polls. It’s still too early for a read on that, but a full report comes out in September.
Greens flag issues in Romania: The European Greens said they were monitoring reports of “polling irregularities” in Romania, especially in university towns.
Cyber sigh of relief: Contrary to expectations, there were no major documented incidents related to the election, according to my colleagues at Pro Cyber Insights. There were some attacks on Dutch party sites and the German CDU. In Ireland, several sites were targeted with DDoS attacks — including the voter registration portal voter.ie — but the National Cyber Security Centre said they did not “significantly impact” the functioning of the websites. More for Pros here.
UKRAINE
UKRAINE’S PRE-BUNGLED CONFERENCE: There’s no doubt Kyiv has suffered the whims of a rapacious Moscow, a partisan Washington and hesitant EU capitals. But it isn’t always a helpless victim. If a fundraising conference kicking off in Berlin today fails, it’s arguably the Ukrainian government’s own fault.
What could have been: Ukraine needs money — and not just for weapons. An estimated €465 billion is needed to restore its ravaged infrastructure. Its Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov was working with German officials to woo investors to today’s Ukraine Recovery Conference. But a month out, Kubrakov was fired in a government reshuffle.
Internal rivalries boil over: The speculation is that Kubrakov’s ouster was engineered by Andriy Yermak, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to eliminate a rival for influence. Kubrakov has yet to be replaced. Then on Monday, a key ally, Mustafa Nayyem, the head of Ukraine’s restoration and infrastructure development agency — a job that seems kinda relevant to the whole investment pitch — abruptly resigned.
The last straw for Nayyem, POLITICO’s Veronika Melkozerova reports, appears to have been the cancellation his planned appearance at the two-day conference. The squabbles and power plays threaten to undermine Kyiv’s credibility while it’s making the case for long-haul investments. Veronika has this guide to all the intrigue.
Who’s going to Berlin: Zelenskyy himself, who has touched down in the German capital and is expected to deliver a speech this morning, according to our Berlin Playbook colleagues. Commission President von der Leyen and German Chancellor Scholz are also speaking this morning, followed by a power panel of foreign ministers moderated by Germany’s Annalena Baerbock.
Counter-programming: As we were writing this item, we got a pitch to join Yermak over Zoom this morning for a briefing on the upcoming Ukraine peace summit, which starts Saturday in Switzerland.
STOP RESTRICTING UKRAINE’S USE OF WEAPONS, LATVIA SAYS: Western countries’ restrictions on Ukraine’s use of their weapons to strike targets inside Russia should be removed by the NATO summit in Washington in July, Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs told Playbook.
Speaking to Stuart Lau just before NATO eastern flank countries’ leaders meet for a mini-summit in Riga today, Rinkēvičs said concerns about escalation notwithstanding, the restrictions “are not based on any rational or pragmatic approach.”
Bottom line: “We all understand that if you really want to win the war,” Rinkēvičs said, “you have to be able to strike at targets also deep inside Russia, if they are legitimate military targets.”
NATO chief will coordinate too: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will also attend the summit, primarily to support the eastern flank countries. (This time, Sweden and Finland are also joining.)
Possibly awkward: Stoltenberg will have a joint presser with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis this afternoon. Iohannis has so far refused to back down from his dark horse bid to succeed Stoltenberg, despite broad support for Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to get the job.
NOW READ THIS: It’s not all bad news for Ukraine, argues Howard J. Shatz, a senior economist at RAND, noting that Western allies are finally making good on their promises.
IN OTHER NEWS
FIALA WARNS OF ‘HYBRID’ RUSSIAN ATTACKS: Czech PM Petr Fiala said a failed arson attack in Prague last week was “very likely” planned and financed by Russia, as part of a “hybrid” campaign. Reuters has more.
CEASE-FIRE HOPES: The U.N. Security Council approved U.S. President Joe Biden’s resolution for a Gaza cease-fire and hostage release, with only Russia abstaining. Read more from my Stateside colleagues. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been in the Middle East urging Hamas to accept the deal.