Greek, Israeli leaders discuss de-escalation, Gaza aid, Iran in phone call
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis held a phone call Saturday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, following an initiative by the Israeli side, according to a statement from the Greek government.
KYSEA on Middle East developments: Parties must show restraint and avoid escalation
The Government Council for National Security (KYSEA) met on Friday afternoon under Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The government, is following with concern the developments that carry the risk of serious inflammation in the region. It also calls on the parties to show restraint and not to engage in further escalation that would cause wider destabilisation.
SYRIZA congress ends with Famellos consolidating control
SYRIZA’s 5th congress concluded on Sunday with party leader Sokratis Famellos emerging as the clear winner in internal ballots on policy positions and the party charter, amid growing speculation over a possible political comeback by former prime minister Alexis Tsipras.
Council of State upholds private university law
The Council of State has ruled by majority vote that foreign universities can legally operate in the country, upholding controversial legislation allowing non-state higher education institutions.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1272296/council-of-state-upholds-private-university-law
ATHEX: Middle East weighs on local stocks
The dramatic developments with the conflict between Israel and Iran took a toll on Greek stocks on Friday, though the main index managed to stem part of its losses and close the day with a moderate decline that sufficed to alter the overall course of the week from positive to negative. Of course, any geopolitical escalation so close to the Greek and Cypriot sphere could have dire consequences for stocks and the economy in general, including tourism and exports.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1272313/athex-middle-east-weighs-on-local-stocks
SUNDAY PAPERS
KATHIMERINI: US plan for dialogue between Greece and Turkey
TO VIMA: The “inflammation” of the Middle East is terrifying the planet
REAL NEWS: The planet is experiencing a nervous breakdown!
PROTO THEMA: “Overthrow the religious regime in Iran”
MONDAY PAPERS:
TA NEA: Greek blow against Turkish drones
EFIMERIDA TON SYNTAKTON: Trump is the “Nero” of the Middle East despite wearing a “peacemaker” mask
KONTRA NEWS: The gates of hell are opening
DIMOKRATIA: “Team Truth” was being funded by New Democracy
NAFTEMPORIKI: 21 proposals for the conjunction of work and education
DRIVING THE DAY: G7
WESTERN FAULT LINES LAID BARE AS G7 GATHERS IN CANADA: Leaders of the world’s seven most powerful Western-aligned countries today gather in Kananaskis, in Canada’s Alberta province, against a backdrop of intensifying war between Iran and Israel, a seemingly intractable war in Ukraine and a massive global trade dispute triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump.
And then there’s the threat of bears. Amid some of the most stringent security measures ever taken for a G7 summit, authorities in Alberta have deployed bear traps around the summit’s gathering places to discourage any wandering predators, Canada’s National Post reports.
Locked down: That’s in addition to a major deployment of Mounties, special measures against drone attacks, and a heightened alert for protesters. (Canadians angry at Trump’s 51st state gibes are one concern; Canadian Sikhs angry at Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will attend as a guest, are another.)
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What you won’t find in Kananaskis: Much unity. Billed as the small-tent gathering of the world’s most powerful, Western-aligned nations, the G7 has for the past five decades been a stable source of messaging on everything from the global economy to public health crises and the rise of China.
Not anymore. While you can expect to see joint statements (meaning, backed by all leaders) on specific topics such as AI or ensuring access to critical raw materials, you’re unlikely to see one overarching communiqué addressing the major geopolitical issues of the day, according to people familiar with the summit prep.
Doing what we can: Instead, the G7 gathering is likely to produce a “chair’s statement” summarizing the tenor of exchanges between leaders including Trump, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron.
The obvious dissenter is Trump. While he’s known for shunning international agreements, the G7 is likely to drive home just how much Trump is disrupting the Western order in pursuit of “America First.”
Playbook takes you through the 4 major fault lines dividing the G7 …
FAULT LINE 1: The war between Israel and Iran, which shows no sign of de-escalating after three days of massive tit-for-tat strikes.
The latest: On Sunday, Israeli army chief Eyal Zamir vowed that his country would “continue to intensify” its attacks against the Iranian regime, and Israel claimed air superiority over the west of Iran, including the capital (the WSJ explains why that’s crucial here). Iranian state media confirmed overnight that Islamic Revolutionary Guard intelligence chief Mohammad Kazemi was killed in an Israeli strike Sunday. Meanwhile, Iranian missiles hit multiple central Israeli cities overnight, killing at least three people in an apartment building in Petach Tikva.
No end in sight: In a chat with Playbook over the weekend, Israel’s Ambassador to the EU Haim Regev said his country’s campaign against Iran was still in its “beginning” phase. “We achieved most of our goals, for the beginning not for the whole operation. It’s well planned, and it’s going according to the plan. We’ll keep attacking central command facilities. It’s ongoing — still not the end.”
Israel-EU contacts: Regev pushed back on the idea that Israel was isolated, saying there is “understanding among leaders” for Israel’s action, citing talks over the weekend between between Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Israeli President Isaac Herzog. (Von der Leyen later spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, per this social media post.)
EU diplomacy: But most EU countries are speaking out against escalation in the conflict. Top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas has called an emergency meeting of foreign ministers via video-link for Tuesday to discuss the Middle East situation, according to an official in her office.
De-escalation path: The meeting will give capitals a chance to coordinate “diplomatic outreach to Tel Aviv and Tehran,” as the EU remains “strongly committed to regional security and de-escalation” and finding a “lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear issue which can only be through a negotiated deal,” the official texted to Playbook.
Make no mistake: Most G7 leaders have asserted Israel’s right to “self-defense” against Iran — but they’ve also issued stern calls for de-escalation.
Not so Trump, who, after warning Iran of devastating consequences should it target U.S. interests, has voiced optimism that the two sides would soon come to a deal. (Reuters reported on Sunday that Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the lead-up to Israel’s initial attack last week.)
Putin, peacemaker? POTUS even said over the weekend that he saw a role for Russian President Vladimir Putin in mediating an end to the conflict — a view unlikely to garner support from Ukraine’s backers around the table.
Expect the G7’s European leaders to press Trump on the reasons why he’s so optimistic.
Don’t expect to see the ground shifting on material support for Israel, as the U.K. remains the only country, besides the U.S., that has made any public moves to provide military assistance. (The U.K. moved fighter jets to the region over the weekend, after Iran threatened to hit British military assets.)
G7 CONTINUED
TRADE RIFTS UNLIKELY TO BE HEALED IN CANADA: While the G7’s role par excellence has been to coordinate global economic policy, it’s unlikely to deliver any quick fixes to the massive trade dispute triggered by Trump’s imposition of tariffs against dozens of countries, not least those gathering in Kananaskis. His administration’s stance effectively rules out any common position on the need to protect global trade, setting up the G7 as a six-versus-one standoff, Koen Verhelst writes in this piece out today.
FAULT LINE 2: POTUS may be hoping to strike trade deals with some of the leaders present. Ursula von der Leyen, who has a mandate to negotiate trade deals with Washington, will be there, as will European Council President António Costa. (In a joint press conference overnight, the two leaders called on Trump to ditch his trade war.) But Trump is unlikely to score any wins in Kananaskis, our U.S. colleague Adam Cancryn reports.
Survival mode: With war intensifying in the Middle East and Russia continuing to attack Ukraine, most G7 leaders just aren’t in the mood for giving the U.S. trade victories. “Everyone just wants to survive,” Ivo Daalder, ex-U.S. ambassador to NATO and now president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, quipped to Adam. (You can read more on this from Daalder in this opinion piece for POLITICO.)
FAULT LINE 3: Ukraine. Almost exactly one year ago, G7 leaders meeting in Italy struck a major deal to provide Ukraine with $50 billion in loans to support the country’s war effort and economy. Such coordination is now a distant memory. Per EU diplomats, there’s little hope among Ukraine’s backers for any sort of unified action to pressure Russia or support Kyiv at the G7.
EU push to lower price cap: European leaders, as well as U.S. lawmakers led by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and his Democratic counterpart, Richard Blumenthal, support the idea of lowering a price cap on Russian oil purchases to $45 per barrel.
But Trump doesn’t seem interested.
Lowered expectations: Nor is there much hope among Europeans that Trump will support Graham and Blumenthal’s bill proposing “bone crushing” tariffs against Russia (the bill seems to be stalled amid opposition from the White House).
FURTHER READING: POLITICO’s Stefan Boscia has a piece out this morning on the battle to be the Trump whisperer at this summit … and Giedre Peseckyte reports on how Europe’s frontier countries are readying their hospitals for war.
FAULT LINE 4: Climate and gender. Don’t waste time looking for common language on rising global temperatures or unified action on violence against women. The topics aren’t specifically mentioned in host Canada’s official list of priorities for the gathering, with broad action against climate change now expressed as “improving joint responses to wildfires,” per a statement from Prime Minister Mark Carney.
STAND BACK: The absence of a joint communiqué at the end of the G7 doesn’t mean it will have been a waste of time. For the past 49 years, leaders have embraced the chance to huddle behind closed doors and influence one another, usually far from TV cameras. This is no different.
Bottom line: The big difference is that hope for consensus among all members of the G7 appears to be fading — a fact coolly observed by those outside the tent, including India, whose foreign minister told POLITICO last week that the “primacy of the G7” had long since given way to “new realities” as the “relative economic weightage in the world have changed.”
THE BUDGET BUS IS COMING
ON THE ROAD WITH SERAFIN: My financial services colleague Gregorio Sorgi hopped aboard Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin’s bus as it wound its way through Belgium on Thursday. Ostensibly, Serafin and his team are touring Europe to visit the farmers, researchers and cities that are spending the EU money. But the trips are also meant to test the temperature of what national capitals, regions and lobbies would like to see in the EU’s 2028-2034 budget shake-up.
Back in the Berlaymont: Fueled by lattes and e-cigarettes, Serafin toured 15 countries on the bus, which was plastered with EU decals that staffers boast cost the EU budget a mere €200. Now, he’s wrapped up his Tour d’Europe and will focus full time on the budget proposal, due out on July 16.
Serafin is working in lockstep with other commissioners and von der Leyen’s powerful head of cabinet, Björn Seibert, to settle the most sensitive questions — such as the size of the budget, new EU-wide taxes to drum up revenues, and whether agri payments should come with more strings attached.
Budget musical chairs: During previous negotiations, Commission departments have made a habit of haggling over the amount of money that is allocated to their pet programs; this time the real fight is over the budget structure. The Commission’s powerful budget department is set to dramatically cut down the number of programs — fueling concerns that key commissioners will effectively lose control over their portfolios.
What to expect: The EU’s budget geeks are looking for ways to do more with roughly the same amount of money. Serafin downplayed expectations that the next budget — which is funded for the most part by national contributions — will be dramatically bigger than the current one. “We cannot count on the increase of the generosity of the member states when it comes to the increase of the contributions,” Serafin told the Parliament of Wallonia.
Taxing times: The Commission is expected to pitch new EU-wide taxes to pay back up to €25-30 billion of joint debt issued to finance the post-Covid-19 recovery.Serafin supported taxing Chinese low-value parcels and carbon imports to bring extra revenues. Officials also expect the Commission to suggest an entry tax on foreign tourists and taxes on U.S. digital firms (though the latter is unpopular in some EU capitals).
Prediction: The Commission will put forward a menu of so-called own resources that will generate more than €25 billion, with the expectation that some countries will work to nix the more controversial measures.
PLAYBOOK FOLLOW-UP
PAKISTAN REPLIES AFTER INDIA FM INTERVIEW: After our interview with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, in which he warned that New Delhi was ready to strike “deep into Pakistan,” Playbook sat down with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, a current lawmaker and Pakistan’s former foreign minister until 2023.
His take: India is playing with fire by using terrorist attacks as a pretext for war.
Fragile ceasefire: “The threshold [for war] is so low that we effectively say that the decision to go to war will no longer be taken in Islamabad or in Delhi. The decision will be taken by any nameless, faceless terrorist organization that decides to attack in the future,” Bhutto Zardari told us on Friday. “As the conflict threshold is low, the escalation ladder will pick up from where we left off. The ceasefire is fragile,” he said, adding that any move by India to threaten the Indus Water Treaty could lead to a return to war.
Plane trivia: On the controversial topic of the Indian planes Islamabad shot down, Bhutto Zardari asserted that Pakistan, using among other tools a JF-17 plane jointly developed with China, destroyed three French-made Rafale aircraft, one Mirage 2000, one MIG-29 an SU30-MKI. India has acknowledged planes were shot down, but has not specified which ones.
IN OTHER NEWS
HAPPENING TODAY: European Parliament President Roberta Metsola (who over the weekend confirmed she won’t ditch Brussels for Maltese politics) will preside over celebrations for the 40th anniversary of the EU’s Schengen free-travel zone during the Parliament’s plenary session. She’s expected to say that “around the world, the Schengen Area is looked at with admiration” as a “clear and very tangible example of what European cooperation can achieve,” per her office. (Reality check: As Hanne Cokelaere reported, temporary border controls are becoming a fixture in the EU’s borderless travel area.)
COMMISSION LOBBYING THE COMMISSION: An “aviation industry declaration” on sustainable fuel, due to be given to the EU’s transport chief next week, was actually drafted by European Commission officials and sent to aviation lobbies for endorsement, Tommaso Lecca reports.
MINNESOTA SUSPECT IN CUSTODY: The man suspected of killing a Minnesota lawmaker and wounding another has been taken into custody, AP reports.