Polls fuel October election speculation
The prospect of an early election in October, following the Thessaloniki International Fair, has reentered political debate amid the creation of new parties and broader changes in Greece’s political landscape, according to the analysis presented in recent polling assessments.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1305909/polls-fuel-october-election-speculation
PASOK seeks political reset with shadow cabinet
PASOK is seeking to move beyond what party officials view as a temporary slump in opinion polls by highlighting its governing credentials, unveiling a “shadow government” and accelerating efforts to attract former members and recruits from across the center left.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1305954/pasok-seeks-political-reset-with-shadow-cabinet
SYRIZA Central Committee approves collaboration with Tsipras party
After a marathon meeting on Saturday, Syriza’s Central Committee endorsed a proposal by party leader Sokratis Famellos to position the party alongside Tsipras’s new political initiative.
Samaras delivers broadside against government
Former prime minister Antonis Samaras took another step towards the launch of a new political party during a visit to Crete on Friday, where he delivered a broadside against his former colleagues in government and argued that a large segment of the center-right electorate is no longer represented.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1305906/samaras-delivers-broadside-against-government
Targeted cabinet changes expected this week
Government spokesperson Pavlos Marinakis has signaled a limited cabinet reshuffle, expected to be announced by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Thursday, while emphasizing that the move does not constitute a broader structural reorganization of the government.
https://www.amna.gr/en/article/998672/Targeted-cabinet-changes-expected-this-week
ATHEX: Week of drop ended with a daily advance
Most stocks edged upward at the Athinon Avenue on Friday, but their advance did not suffice to offset all losses that the benchmark had incurred during the week, resulting in a negative result compared to the previous Friday. All this was done on relatively low turnover, almost identical to that of Thursday. The local bourse closed for the weekend before Wall Street saw its indexes plummet due to pressure on technology stocks.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1305858/athex-week-of-drop-ended-with-a-daily-advance
SUNDAY PAPERS
KATHIMERINI: The October window for snap elections
TO VIMA: Mitsotakis-Androulakis-Tsipras-Karystianou: The persons and the ratings
REAL NEWS: Political “earthquakes” on the way to the elections
PROTO THEMA: Be ready for snap elections
MONDAY PAPERS:
TA NEA: Changes in workers’ leave of absence
EFIMERIDA TON SYNTAKTON: Poll: Trust crisis in unions
KONTRA NEWS: Black September for Mitsotakis
DIMOKRATIA: The Turks are setting up false flag operations with wildfires
NAFTEMPORIKI: Catalysts of major changes in markets
DRIVING THE DAY
BARDELLA’S CHARM OFFENSIVE: Ten months before the French presidential election, Jordan Bardella’s allies are already discussing how he would work with other EU governments — as well as the European Parliament — if the National Rally wins. The strategy: convincing Europe not to freak out.
Sane and sound: “He needs to reassure Europe and be transparent about our intentions, because for years we were portrayed as crazies,” said a French official from the Patriots for Europe, the third-largest political group in the Parliament, which is led by Bardella, an MEP.
The cred campaign: The National Rally leader, who is likely to be the party’s presidential candidate and is ahead in the polls, is already positioning himself as a constructive ally to other conservative leaders in the EU, my colleagues Max Griera, Sarah Paillou and Clea Caulcutt report. He has praised German Chancellor Friedrich Merz while snubbing the far-right Alternative for Germany. He has also laid down detailed policy plans for the EU that resemble those drawn up in Berlin, Rome and Warsaw, including a migration crackdown and deregulation.
Best of both right-wing worlds: It’s looking likely that his strategy could be a mix of Hungary’s former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, two right-wingers who have had victories on the EU stage.“If Orbán always used his veto and Meloni used negotiation, we will do both,” said the official. “On foreign policy, we will be using our veto; but on deregulation, green policy and migration, we want to build bridges with Italy, Germany and interested countries.”
Meloni model: Yet Bardella’s positioning owes largely to the Meloni playbook. Just as Ursula von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party helped to place Meloni and her Brothers of Italy into the Brussels mainstream, where she has worked constructively with the Commission, the EPP could also bring Bardella into the fold.
Location, location, location: That has raised questions among National Rally allies about whether the party could join Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists, which tends to be more pro-Ukraine than the Patriots, the French far right’s current home. “Maybe … we’ll see,” said one of the National Rally MEPs.
The reasoning is that membership of the Patriots means being perceived by the EPP as too far-right — and too pro-Russian — to openly work together. Meanwhile, Meloni’s ECR is a power broker in Brussels, shaping the legislative agenda.
One-alligator rule: A second MEP called the idea to join the ECR “stupid.” As the dominant force within the Patriots, Bardella’s party would inevitably clash with Meloni’s camp inside a common ECR grouping, they said. “There can only be one leader in the swamp.”
Or Meloni goes right: A Patriots official said that a National Rally victory in the French presidential race would create a “pull factor” opening up many new possible alliances — including with the EPP. With France as an ally, Meloni could be prompted to move further to the right, sparking a shift by Brothers of Italy MEPs to the Patriots. “Today, [Meloni] is somewhat constrained by the European Commission,” the official said.
Meloni’s lieutenant and ECR Co-Chair Nicola Procaccini told POLITICO the Italians and French can work together even if they sit in different political groups and that Bardella will be a “pragmatic and realistic” because he has “the responsibility of governing a country as important as France.”
BIG AND BREAKING
MIDDLE EAST ESCALATES: Donald Trump told the FT that Benjamin Netanyahu will have to accept any deal the U.S. negotiates with Iran because Trump “calls the shots” — but Israel then launched fresh strikes on military targets in central and western Iran overnight in response to missile fire from Tehran.
SAVING SÁNCHEZ: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s profile has been boosted by his staunch opposition to Trump, but will it be enough to keep him in power?
FOLLOW THE MONEY: Hungary’s top anti-corruption official tells POLITICO that senior members of former PM Viktor Orbán’s government should be investigated over billions of euros in missing EU funds.
CHEMICAL REACTION: The European Commission is preparing new measures to prop up the EU’s chemicals industry, to counter an influx of cheap Chinese imports.
DUBLIN UNDER PRESSURE
RISKY RUSSIAN EXPORTS: Chief EU diplomat Kaja Kallas heads to Dublin this week, amid an outcry over reports an Irish-based company has been exporting large amounts of alumina to Russia throughout Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
Why it matters: Kallas’s trip, confirmed by two officials aware of her plans, puts Taoiseach Micheál Martin under pressure just as Ireland prepares to take over the EU’s rotating presidency. It’s true that EU members have stopped short of sanctioning the exports of alumina, a raw material used to create aluminum metal. But the questions about Ireland’s dealings with Russia keep coming.
Fact-finding: Kallas will be “asking questions” about the exports from the Limerick-based Aughinish Alumina refinery, according to an EU official granted anonymity to discuss the trip. The sales have caused an uproar, with an investigation revealing most of the company’s alumina exports since 2023 have ended up in Russia.
Awkward timing: After 39 MEPs publicly urged the Commission to ban the exports, Finnish MEP Mika Aaltola told Playbook that “suspicion” about Dublin’s stance on Russia and Ukraine would be “plaguing the Irish presidency” when it kicks off on July 1.
Act now: Aaltola’s not alone. Thijs Reuten, a lawmaker with the Socialists and Democrats, told Max Griera that “Ireland must take action even if the EU has not yet put alumina exports on the sanctions list.”
Under pressure: Fresh details about the exports include the fact that Aughinish Alumina’s parent company Rusal is controlled by oligarch and Putin confidant Oleg Deripaska. Martin has responded by vowing to investigate the trade, telling journalists that Dublin doesn’t want to be involved in the export of products that “end up in weapons or as explosives with impact on Ukraine or others.”
Too little: The taoiseach’s response isn’t good enough, according to some MEPs. “The arguments of the Irish government refusing to take action do not stand up to scrutiny,” Reuten said, calling for the exports to be shut down completely.
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20-SECOND PLAYBOOK PRIMER
POLITICO reported last week that the European Parliament hosted an event by a group accused of being a pro-Russian sect that believes aliens walk among us. So, how easy is it for MEPs to put on events on European Parliament premises? Individual lawmakers and political groups are allowed to co-host events with private companies and individuals. They have specific budget lines they can use for doing this and they can request interpreter services and a room from the Parliament’s logistics department.
TALK TO PLAYBOOK: WhatsApp us on +32 491 050629 and listen from 7 a.m. to hear if we give you a shoutout.
EU ENLARGEMENT
SET A DATE: Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys wants the EU to stop being vague about Ukraine’s membership prospects and instead set a clear political deadline — preferably 2030 — for when the bloc will be ready to allow Kyiv to join.
Momentum can’t wait: Drawing on Lithuania’s own accession experience, Budrys told reporters, including Playbook’s Zoya Sheftalovich: “When it happened for us, when the EU gave us the date that in 2002 it will be ready, it changed everything,” he said. Setting a date would provide direction and momentum for both Ukraine and the EU, he reckons.
2030 is a credible date for the bloc to work toward, Budrys said. “We need something like this. It’s not to say that it’s a guarantee Ukraine will be a member state in 2030. It’s up to Ukraine, whether they will do reforms, and it’s up to negotiations. But to say the European Union will be ready for it.”
Don’t leave Kyiv in limbo: The broader message from Lithuania is that uncertainty risks undermining both reform efforts in Ukraine and the EU’s geopolitical credibility. Rather than allowing enlargement to drift, Budrys said the bloc should demonstrate strategic leadership by setting out a realistic timeline for its own readiness.
High standards, credible path: In Vilnius’ view, the question is not whether standards should be lowered — they shouldn’t — but whether the EU is willing to match Ukraine’s reform efforts with a clear political commitment and a credible path toward membership.
UKRAINE REFUGEE TALK: EU home affairs ministers were “more or less unanimous” in favoring an extension of Europe’s temporary protection status for Ukrainian refugees at a meeting in Luxembourg last week. But there was also “strong support” for a proposal to exclude men of conscription age, Swedish Migration Minister Johan Forssell told Hanne Cokelaere.
4 MORE THINGS GETTING US TALKING
KUSHNER RESORT ROW: Brussels has warned Albania not to jeopardize its path into the EU, amid growing protests over a luxury coastal development linked to Jared Kushner.
ELECTION WATCH: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claimed an “historic victory” in the country’s parliamentary elections after early results showed his pro-EU Civil Contract party receiving about 54 percent of the vote, Reuters reports.
Meanwhile in Kosovo, Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s left-wing Vetëvendosje party was on course to win Kosovo’s snap election Sunday night — though it will likely need to form a coalition to govern, preliminary results suggested.
GLOBAL SHIPPING, DISRUPTED: How the shipping industry is adapting to world of constant disruption and threats.