PM Mitsotakis speaks on the phone with Ukrainian President Zelensky
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Saturday spoke on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. They discussed the latest developments while Mitsotakis reiterated that it is up to Ukraine to decide on the peace framework acceptable to it and that nothing can be decided for Ukraine without Ukraine.
Gov’t braces for Tempe anniversary protests
Greece is bracing for mass demonstrations on February 28 as the country marks two years since the tragic train collision in Tempe in central Greece that killed 57 people and injured scores. The government fears the protests may spiral into the largest wave of public dissent since the 2012 economic crisis, with social media fueling renewed outrage.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1262389/govt-braces-for-tempe-anniversary-protests
Ambitious air defense, deterrence upgrade
Greece is set to present an ambitious defense modernization program in the coming weeks, aiming to enhance the operational capabilities of its armed forces and strengthen its deterrent posture in the region. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Defense Minister Nikos Dendias are expected to formally unveil the program during a parliamentary plenary session after March 4, emphasizing its significance for national security and its broader value to Greek society.
EU may trip up Greek fiscal request
The government expects fiscal breathing space, within reasonable limits and without jeopardizing fiscal discipline, from the European Commission’s proposal to exempt defense investments from the spending limit of the new Stability Pact, by activating the escape clause.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1262458/eu-may-trip-up-greek-fiscal-request
ATHEX: Ninth straight week of gains for bourse
The benchmark of the Greek stock market completed on Friday its ninth consecutive week of growth, a feat unseen since early 2023. While Friday offered little change to the main index, mostly thanks to banks offsetting the decline of mid- and small-caps, it confirmed that even on a day without buying interest the indexes remain in the black.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1262325/athex-ninth-straight-week-of-gains-for-bourse
SUNDAY PAPERS
KATHIMERINI: The landmark of February 28
TO VIMA: Metron Analysis poll: 30% of Greeks “vote” for Trump
REAL NEWS: Europe in lethargy
PROTO THEMA: The return of the irrational anti-systemics: From the Drachma to the Tempi rail crash
MONDAY PAPERS:
TA NEA: German elections: the next day
EFIMERIDA TON SYNTAKTON: German elections: the establishment holds while the extreme-right is lurking
KONTRA NEWS: Hybrid provocation regarding the upcoming Tempi rallies via the internet
DIMOKRATIA: Tempi rail crash: Misleading game by the government and… toxic talk
NAFTEMPORIKI: Narrower margins for handouts
GERMAN ELECTION RESULTS: CDU/CSU 28.6 percent … AfD 20.8 percent … SPD 16.4 percent … Greens 11.6 percent … Die Linke 8.8 percent … BSW 4.97 percent … FDP 4.3 percent.
DRIVING THE DAY: MERZ ELECTION VICTORY
FRIEDRICH MERZ IS GERMANY’S NEW CHANCELLOR — WITH STRINGS ATTACHED: The candidate of the CDU-CSU alliance prevailed in the federal election Sunday, lining himself up to become the most powerful conservative figure at a European Council table already dominated by the center-right.
Comeback kid: It’s a major comeback for the former corporate lawyer. Having slammed the door on frontline politics almost 20 years ago amid a rift with ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel, Merz has clawed his way to the top, just shy of his 70th birthday.
Jaw-droppers: In his first remarks since winning the election, Merz dropped several bombshells — blasting Elon Musk’s “interference” in Germany’s election and saying he was in contact with other leaders about becoming “independent” from the U.S. on security. “I never thought I’d say that on a TV show,” Merz added.
Killer quote: “For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” he said. Read the full story here by Tim Ross and Nette Nöstlinger.
No deal with AfD: Merz again ruled out any prospect of forming a coalition with the far-right Alternative for Germany, which made historic gains and finished second after receiving loud support from Musk and U.S. Vice President JD Vance. Read our big rundown of election night, and don’t miss the inside story of the 31 days that made Merz chancellor by Nette and Emily Schultheis.
Say his name: In a message on his Truth Social platform, Donald Trump congratulated the “conservative party in Germany” — but didn’t namecheck Merz and bigged himself up instead.
Mixed bag: And yet, this isn’t the thundering display that Merz or Markus Söder, head of the Christian Social Union, which ran with the CDU, had hoped for.
Battle ahead: Capturing under 30 percent of all votes, according to preliminary results, the winning duo now faces tricky coalition talks that could end up dashing hopes for a rapid Merz-led transformation of Europe’s defense and security architecture. For months, EU diplomats and officials pointed to Feb. 23 as the date when thorny debates on defense can become unstuck. “Merz can’t come soon enough,” was the refrain in Brussels.
Hurry up and wait: Now that he’s been elected, those officials will have to hold their breath a bit longer. Speaking on German TV on Sunday, Merz said he aims to form a government by Easter, nearly two months from now. He also acknowledged that coalition talks would be difficult — “but we knew that before the election,” he said.
Interim muddle: That raises the prospect of a messy transition period as Merz works out kinks with Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party and possibly other partners. One immediate question is whether Merz or Scholz will attend a special European Council announced Sunday for March 6 by Council President António Costa (more on that below).
Playing nice: No immediate answer, but the two men vowed to work together constructively. “We will certainly find ways to speak with each other about the policies Germany represents internationally,” said Scholz. Merz added: “We need to see that we’re capable of acting on the international stage.” The chancellor-to-be also voiced hope that he would be able to rule as part of a grand coalition with the SPD, which had its worst electoral performance in its history.
Scholz out? The current chancellor said he wouldn’t be the SPD’s negotiator in coalition talks, opening the way for party co-leader Lars Klingbeil or Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to take over.
OH BELLA CIAO: After a dramatic late-night cliffhanger over vote counts, the pro-Putin BSW party led by Sahra Wagenknecht missed the 5 percent hurdle to enter parliament by a whisker (4.972 percent). That’s a relief for Merz, who otherwise would have had to team up with the SPD and Greens to form a three-way coalition, making it much more difficult to push through his reform agenda (while leaving the parliamentary opposition entirely to far-left and far-right parties). Now, Merz can form a coalition with just the SPD.
ALL THE WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM LAST NIGHT.
ECONOMIC REPERCUSSIONS: There’s hope for those who want Europe to start borrowing jointly to finance defense spending, Hans von der Burchard writes in from Berlin. The rocky outlook for transatlantic relations makes it increasingly likely that Merz will warm up to European solutions like bonds to finance more defense expenditure. That pushes Germany toward France and Poland, which have been calling for such solutions for a long time.
MORE INDESPENSIBLE ANALYSIS …
Who is Germany’s new chancellor? James Angelos looks at the man on the brink of becoming Europe’s most powerful leader and whether he’s got what it takes to defend the fraying liberal order without Washington as a close ally.
What the result means for Europe: The shape of Merz’s government is still to be determined by coalition talks, but expect a departure from Scholz’s policies. POLITICO breaks down what the conservative victory means for the EU on everything from nuclear weapons to cannabis.
Alice for Deutschland: Following the AfD’s historic election success, candidate Alice Weidel was met with chants of “Alice für Deutschland” in Berlin. With one in five voters backing the far right, Weidel embodies a shift toward extremism within German politics, Emily Schultheis writes.
Governing won’t be easy: Gordon Repinski, our executive editor in Berlin and one of the savviest observers of German politics, discusses the result with Nahal Toosi in Washington, including whether Musk’s support boosted the AfD and how Merz will approach Trump and Putin.
MARCH 6 EUCO: António Costa isn’t wasting any time. No sooner had Germany’s preliminary election results come in than the European Council president announced plans for an extraordinary meeting of leaders in Brussels, focused on “Ukraine and defense,” according to an EU official. But this is unlikely to be the site of major decisions, according to two EU diplomats — rather it will pave the way to finalize the EU’s white paper on defense, which is expected out later in March.
The bottom line: Patience is a virtue, goes the saying. In the EU, it may be turning into a vice.
UKRAINE WAR ANNIVERSARY
LEADERS HEAD TO KYIV AND WASHINGTON: In a coordinated blitz to coincide with the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 13 leaders gather in Kyiv today in a show of support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, including Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Costa. Another 24 leaders will join the meeting online, Zelenskyy told a wide-ranging press conference on Sunday.
At the same time, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are heading to Washington. Macron, who’s meeting Trump later today, said he would tell the U.S. president that letting Russia win the Ukraine war would be a “huge strategic mistake.” Starmer will follow with a White House meeting on Thursday, after saying the U.K. will be “ready and willing” to put troops on the ground in Ukraine as part of a security guarantee. Read the full write-up by Clea Caulcutt, Eli Stokols and yours truly.
Divide and conquer: The two-pronged approach aims to create a “counterforce” to Trump’s embrace of Russian positions in the Ukraine war, while allowing Macron and Starmer to get a better understanding of what the White House really wants, said Finnish conservative MEP Mika Aaltola.
Figuring out what’s going on: “There are a lot of uncertainties about what America is going to do, perhaps with Russia or on their own,” Aaltola said. “There has been no firm talk on Article 5 [NATO’s mutual defense clause] or permanent troop presence in Europe … This whole adventure on U.S. foreign policy realignment started in Munich and has continued in Riyadh. We need a better understanding.”
In Kyiv, expect von der Leyen, Costa and other EU officials to clearly trumpet their support for Ukraine. One geopolitical lever is Ukraine’s membership in the European Union, which is getting sped-up treatment under Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos. Asked by MEPs which country she wanted to see next in the EU, she said: “Ukraine — immediately!”
What about the aid? POLITICO scooped last week that the EU was working on plans to send as much as €20 billion in aid to Ukraine in an effort coordinated by the bloc’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas. Those plans will be at the heart of discussions at the Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels today, where Kallas will press countries to commit to specific amounts in cash and military kit including artillery shells, air defense systems and equipment for brigades.
Now read this: Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen has an op-ed in the FT today in which he argues, on behalf of Nordic and Baltic countries, that “now is the time for Europe really to step up on Ukraine.” He writes: “We are ready to think creatively to find new financing for Ukraine’s military. The time to do so is now. But the European countries must dig deeper into their pockets.”
Making time: A discussion item on Iran has been postponed, likely to make more time for the Ukraine talks, according to one EU diplomat.
What’s the holdup? The rapidly evolving position of the U.S., as well as Hungary’s likely opposition to aid, are complicating factors, senior diplomats said in briefings ahead of the Foreign Affairs Council.
Southerners balk: But Hungary is not the only factor. In the flurry of diplomacy last week, a divide emerged between EU countries, with Nordic and Baltic states on one side leading the charge for more aid. On the other side, Italy and Spain are slow-walking commitments on security guarantees, with Rome raising several challenges to the Kallas initiative during a Coreper meeting on Tuesday, according to the same EU diplomat cited above.
Meloni in the middle: At the center of this divide is Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who raised eyebrows by appearing at the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) conference in the U.S. over the weekend and praising JD Vance’s broadside against European democracies.
Whose side? Meloni “has always been very very smart about keeping Europe on side in order not to antagonize the Commission and other member states … She’s been very reasonable,” said the same diplomat. “Here she seems to try to straddle a divide that is getting bigger and bigger.”
What to watch: Nordic and Baltic leaders will appear together bright and early (7:45 a.m.) on their way into the FAC, as you read these lines.
What they’ll say: The contingent will emphasize their contributions and the need for the “whole of the EU” to provide more military support for Ukraine, according to a second EU diplomat.
Frozen assets: Estonia will table a discussion paper on using Russia’s frozen assets to help Ukraine, a matter that’s been raised as part of a potential peace settlement between Moscow and Kyiv.
Pressure on: The day will wrap up with a press conference by Kallas at which she’s expected to give a state of play on aid commitments, even if discussions haven’t been finalized, per an EU official.
Would a dictator do this? Meanwhile, over in Kyiv, Zelenskyy offered to step down if it brought peace to his country or resulted in Ukrainian accession to NATO. The response to Trump’s calls for a Ukrainian election came in a press conference on Sunday, where Zelenskyy also said he wasn’t offended by the false claim he is a dictator. He also slapped down Trump’s claims Ukraine will soon sign a deal to hand $500 billion worth of natural resources to America, saying “I am not signing something that 10 generations of Ukrainians will have to repay.”
PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW
INTERVIEW WITH LITHUANIA’S FOREIGN MINISTER: Speaking to my colleague Gabriel Gavin in an interview for POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook ahead of the Foreign Affairs Council, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said he expected the package of support for Ukraine would “show that we are serious as Europe, taking responsibility on our side” and “influence this narrative about burden-sharing with the U.S.”
Kremlin cash: Making the most of the bloc’s leverage, the diplomat said, could also include plans backed by Poland and Estonia to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine fund its defense, despite caution from some member countries who are worried about the legality of the move. “I don’t take the argument that it’s legally problematic … we need political will to do it,” Budrys said, adding that skeptical capitals “must produce some stronger arguments why we aren’t doing it.”
Anger at Orbán: But the rift over frozen assets pales in comparison to the impending showdown with Hungary over Russia sanctions, after the country’s foreign minister threatened to blow up the entire framework of restrictions, which needs unanimous support to be renewed. “The biggest problem is that we cannot make decisions and have political obstacles inside the EU,” Budrys said. “This is the time where we have to draw the line between national interests and sabotage; between European interests and blackmail.”
Plan B? According to the Lithuanian, if Hungary goes through with its threat to veto the rollover, it should brace for serious consequences. But, in the meantime, individual member countries could find “national solutions” to avoid Russian cash and goods flowing once again. “Not many countries have national legislation with national restrictive measures. In Lithuania we do, but we need clarity on the legal side — whether we can expand those to sectoral sanctions. But then we will have the question of what is the EU for then?”
RWANDA IN FOCUS
CRUNCH TIME FOR EU SANCTIONS ON RWANDA. The EU’s foreign ministers will today also discuss the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as pressure builds on the bloc to sanction Rwanda for its support for the M23 fighters who have carried indiscriminate attacks in the eastern part of the country, Camille Gijs writes in to report.
Recap: In the latest twist in a decades-long conflict, the M23 in late January took control of the city of Goma, which is located in Congo’s east and home to about 1 million people. The escalation of violence prompted an international outcry, with the U.N. Security Council (including Russia and China) on Friday condemning Rwanda for the first time for its support of M23.
According to an EU diplomat, the EEAS recently circulated a paper with about 20 measures to take against Rwanda — including summoning its ambassador to the EU.
To watch today: The EU’s foreign ministers are expected to agree on imposing individual sanctions on about 10 people at their meeting today, Camille reports. Several countries, including Germany, Belgium and Sweden, are also expected to announce they will review their development cooperation with Kigali.
IN OTHER NEWS
FIGHT OVER CUTS TO GREEN REPORTING RULES: The European Commission has vowed to stick by its green ambitions while reducing red tape for companies. But the balance between the two is proving contentious in the Berlaymont, Zia Weise reports.
Deregulation drama: On Wednesday, the Commission is expected to publish its omnibus simplification bill meant to streamline climate-related corporate reporting requirements. But the draft was stuck at the political level until late Friday, with commissioners fighting over how far to go in the EU’s deregulation drive.
A step too far? A rule forcing companies to measure and report the environmental damage they cause — known as double materiality — was removed in drafts circulated to commissioners last week, people briefed on the discussions told Zia on Friday. One official said Teresa Ribera, the EU’s climate and competition chief, put her foot down and prevented the draft from moving to the next stage over this issue. Read more here.
Scoop alert — partial draft: According to a leaked section of a draft obtained by my colleague Marianne Gros on Saturday, Ribera might have won the fight. The leak doesn’t mention double materiality — though it is an incomplete draft. Either way, the Commission plans to take an ax to other elements of its green reporting rules.
SPAIN PUSHES FOR NEW CHINA POSITION: The EU should craft its own China policy rather than following Donald Trump’s lead, Spain’s Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares told the FT in an interview. “Europe must take its own decisions, on its own. And we have to decide when China can be a partner and when China is a competitor,” he said.
EU TECH RULES DELEGATION IN WASHINGTON: The first delegation of EU lawmakers from Parliament’s IMCO committee is heading to D.C. to convey messages about EU tech regulations after the White House dropped this bombshell report threatening tariffs over digital regulation. Speaking to Playbook, German Greens MEP Anna Cavazzini said the trip aimed to gather intel on the Americans’ approach, talk about the benefits of EU regulation and convey that other countries have “no right to touch our democratically decided regulations.”