Skopje ups ante, widening rift with Athens
The rift between Athens and Skopje is deepening, with North Macedonian Prime Minister-elect Hristijan Mickoski stating he will refrain from verbally using the country’s constitutional name – i.e without the affixed geographical designation of North – in violation of the Prespa Agreement. He even called on Athens to appeal to the International Court of Justice if it believes the Prespa Agreement is not being respected.
Mitsotakis: Greece’s red lines are clearly delineated in talks with Turkiye
“We keep the channels of communication with Turkiye open, without deviating from our fixed national positions,” Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on Thursday, in an interview with Skai TV.
ND opens up lead, 2nd place up for grabs
With just 24 days before the European Parliament elections, an MRB poll on behalf of Open TV gave ruling New Democracy a 13.4-point lead over leftist opposition SYRIZA, widening the gap compared to the company’s previous findings.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1238911/nd-opens-up-lead-2nd-place-up-for-grabs
Kasselakis: Greece to be amazed by European elections result on June 9
The leader of the main opposition SYRIZA-Progressive Alliance, Stefanos Kasselakis, appeared optimistic about the outcome of the European elections, stating that “ Greece will be amazed by the result on June 9.
ATHEX: Bourse not yet ready for 1,500 points
Thursday gave traders a mixed session at Athinon Avenue, with the majority of stocks and the benchmark narrowly heading lower, while the blue chip index and that of banks moved up, one day after another 13-year high for the main index. The early gains gave way to moderate losses as the benchmark apparently was not yet ready to clear the 1,500-point barrier.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1238954/athex-bourse-not-yet-ready-for-1500-points
KATHIMERINI: Inflammatory rhetoric by Skopje
TA NEA: Seven floating radars to be placed in the Aegean Sea
EFIMERIDA TON SYNTAKTON: The vague answer of the Foreign Minister regarding cargoes of Greek arms being secretly sent to Ukraine ultimately confirms related reports
AVGI: Crime and cover-up regarding the Tempi rail crash: 15 tons of lies
RIZOSPASTIS: It’s a lie that the EU is giving Greece money
KONTRA NEWS: Record-high indifference for the euro-elections
DIMOKRATIA: Tempi rail crash: The cover-up of the century
NAFTEMPORIKI: Mistakes in the pre-filled tax-declaration forms
DRIVING THE DAY: DUTCH DISRUPTION
HAGUE’S GOVERNING AGREEMENT SEEKS CARVE-OUTS: Dutch anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders may not be his country’s next prime minister. But a new government backed by his right-wing party is hurtling toward a collision with the European Union on everything from migration to farming to enlargement.
Another Hungary-style rebel inside the gates? Think more along the lines of David Cameron’s U.K. pre-Brexit, minus the threat of a “Nexit” referendum.
Take migration: The Wilders-backed coalition wants a carve-out from the bloc’s freshly minted migration pact to put in place the “strictest asylum policy ever,” according to the governing agreement. Read the full story by POLITICO.
What that looks like: A freeze on processing asylum applications, calls to deport people without valid residence papers “even forcibly,” calls to shelter underprivileged asylum seekers in “austere facilities,” and seeking the opt-out clause from the European Commission “as soon as possible.”
They’re skeptical about EU enlargement: While Brussels has opened the door to membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova, the new Dutch government sees expansion with a “very critical eye.” If the EU proceeds, The Hague reserves the right to “restrict the free movement of persons within the EU if and insofar as expansion of the EU is discussed,” the coalition agreement states.
Then there’s the money. Already known as a frugal country, the Netherlands is set to become even more so. The new crew in charge wants to reduce the amount The Hague pays to the EU, at a time when French President Emmanuel Macron is calling to boost the EU budget or raise money jointly to finance defense and technology.
And there’s a starkly different position on climate and agriculture: The governing deal promises that the Netherlands will “stick to existing agreements” on climate, but it also says it’ll scrap measures designed to help the country hit its emissions targets. As for limits on nitrogen pollution, the Wilders-backed government will seek another carve-out from EU law.
Sticking by Ukraine: Like Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Wilders has understood that being pro-Ukraine is the price of admission at the main EU table. The incoming government has clearly laid out its support for Kyiv, which it says will remain constant.
The question now is: Who will wield the wrecking ball? The four-party coalition hasn’t named a PM, although one name getting plenty of attention is Ronald Plasterk, a molecular biologist and ex-Labor Party minister who’s been drifting to the right.
History: Plasterk was part of the reason why a previous round of coalition talks failed, my colleague Eva Hartog reported at the time. Acting as negotiator, he fell out with centrist politician Pieter Omtzigt over what Omtzigt described as a “breach of trust” relating to the state of Dutch finances. That prompted Omtzigt to slam the door on the talks.
Fool me once: Omtzigt may not want to be seen as a spoilsport again, especially given that the Dutch have been waiting for more than six months to know who their next prime minister will be.
TROUBLE AMONG LIBERALS: The coalition deal is shaking up the liberals in the European Parliament, as Eddy Wax and Barbara Moens report here. On Thursday, Valérie Hayer, a French lawmaker who leads the liberal Renew Europe bloc in Parliament, voiced “total disapproval” of Wilders’ party in a statement.
Promises: The problem is that acting Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s VVD party is part of the Wilders coalition, which grates the liberals. “We will never cooperate nor form a coalition with the far-right and radical parties at any level,” Renew and other political groups pledged on May 8 (as Playook reported Thursday).
Bottom line: Given the baseline level of disunity in the liberal camp, it’s unlikely that the group would go so far as to give Rutte’s VVD the boot. But the looming awkward cohabitation hints at further compromises to come as far-right parties surge ahead of the European election in June.
SLOVAKIA ON THE BRINK
CALLS FOR CALM AFTER FICO ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT: Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico remains in a serious but stable condition after surviving an assassination attempt. But his country is just starting to reckon with the hatred and polarization that led one government minister to claim that it was on the brink of civil war.
Showing unity: On Thursday, government and opposition parties jointly urged calm. “We are standing here together because we want to send a signal of reconciliation in this tense moment,” said President Zuzana Čaputová, co-founder of the opposition Progressive Slovakia, in a joint statement with her newly elected successor Peter Pellegrini. Read Tom Nicholson’s write-up here.
Peace pause: Progressive Slovakia has also suspended campaigning for June’s Europe-wide election. “We suggested a period of 100 days of peace where we avoid proposing changes in sensitive areas,” Martin Hojsík, a member of the Slovak opposition and vice president of the European Parliament, told Playbook’s Ketrin Jochecová.
But not everyone seems to have received the memo. Interior Minister Matúš Šutaj Eštok blamed Slovak media for polarizing the country. “I ask the media, and you know which ones I am talking about, to stop giving space to desperate politicians to share their lies. Stop it,” he said. He added that he is “not blaming anyone” for the attempted killing.
Powder keg: Juraj Marušiak, a Slovak political scientist, said he feared the worst. “I think it [the shooting] will lead to an even greater radicalization of society,” he said. “I don’t think our political elites are capable of sending a signal that this can’t continue.”
Not accepting blame: In a call with Ketrin, Progressive Slovakia’s Hojsík said he “refused” attempts to pile blame on the opposition and the media. “We need to preserve media freedom and the right to criticism which are the basic principles of liberal democracy,” he said.
Bottom line: The days ahead will prove volatile, threatening instability or a breakdown in the rule of law in an EU country at the same time as war rages on Europe’s doorstep. As “peace projects” go, this one is looking more fragile by the day.
2024 ELECTION CAMPAIGN
IS SCHMIT VDL’S CHALLENGER — OR RUNNING MATE? Nicolas Schmit, the lead candidate for the Socialists in the EU election, is traveling all over Europe to get the center-left message across. But so far, he’s been soft in his criticism of Ursula von der Leyen and has struggled to challenge his supposed rival.
Campaign trail: At one campaign rally after another, the 70-year-old European commissioner for jobs and social rights is harnessing support for Socialist candidates in the EU Parliament election and — in theory — for his bid to become the next Commission president.
The journey is the reward? But beyond socialist headquarters, it’s hard to find anyone who believes Schmit, an unknown Luxembourgish politician, has any real chance of winning. Schmit even needs von der Leyen for his political survival, as his party is no longer in the governing coalition of Luxembourg. So, as my colleagues Barbara Moens and Jacopo Barigazzi ask, is he her challenger — or her running mate?
IN OTHER NEWS
SECURITY TIME BOMB: Ongoing violent protests in New Caledonia, the French overseas territory in the South Pacific, which have already led to the deaths of five people around the capital of Nouméa, have put the French government on high alert, POLITICO’s Giorgio Leali and Victor Goury-Laffont report. President Emmanuel Macron canceled several official events to hold emergency meetings, and declared a state of emergency giving the executive branch more powers to keep the situation under control.
France accuses Azerbaijan: French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said the violence has been actively supported by the South Caucasus country. “This isn’t a fantasy,” he insisted on Thursday. “I regret that some of the separatists have made a deal with Azerbaijan.” A spokesperson for Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry strongly disputed the accusation.
UKRAINE — RUSSIANS ‘DON’T HAVE THE NUMBERS’ SAYS NATO COMMANDER: Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe, said Thursday he doubted Russia has the resources to make a “strategic breakthrough” in Ukraine, despite its recent advances near Kharkiv. “They don’t have the skill and the capability to do it,” the U.S. general said. Jacopo Barigazzi has the story.
BIDEN’S ISRAEL WEAPONS PAUSE UPDATE: The U.S. House of Representatives delivered a bipartisan rebuke of President Joe Biden’s pledge to withhold certain heavy bombs from Israel amid its ongoing conflict in Gaza, passing a bill designed to compel delivery of the weapons. The Biden administration has threatened to veto the bill.
LISTEN UP — WILL THE BOTS WIN THE ELECTION? Deepfakes and AI are supercharging Moscow’s army of trolls ahead of the European election. Are voters actually falling for disinformation about the war in Ukraine, and is there any way to stop it from spreading? Mark Scott, POLITICO’s chief technology correspondent, and Jakub Kalensky, deputy director of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, join host Sarah Wheaton on this week’s edition of the EU Confidential podcast to debate which is the bigger threat to EU democracy: the fake-news bots — or your credulous aunt who forwards their lies. Listen here.
For the finance fans: On Westminster Insider this week, host Sascha O’Sullivan investigates whether the Bank of England is really a secret political player, speaking to guests including former U.K. PM Liz Truss.
GIBRALTAR DEAL INCHING CLOSER: A deal settling the Brexit status of Gibraltar is “getting closer,” according to a joint statement issued by David Cameron and his EU counterpart Maroš Šefčovič after a meeting in Brussels on Thursday. Speaking to reporters after negotiations went through to the early evening, Šefčovič said the discussions had been “very intensive and we really used every minute.” He wouldn’t say what the stumbling blocks were, but insisted significant progress was made on “all the issues.”
EU AMBASSADORS ON SCHOOL TRIP: The 27 ambassadors to the EU, better known in the European bubble as Coreper, will spend their traditional “away day” in the castle of Bois-Seigneur-Isaac, a spokesperson of the Belgian presidency told our colleague Barbara Moens. Apart from being a beautiful location, there is symbolism behind that choice: It belongs to the family of Jean-Charles Snoy et d’Oppuers, negotiator and signatory of the 1957 Treaty of Rome.
On the menu: During lunch, the ambassadors will exchange ideas with the author Marc De Vos, whose book “Superpower Europe” the Belgian ambassador gifted to his colleagues.
AND NOW BECAUSE IT’S FRIDAY … Paul Dallison contemplates Angela Merkel’s forthcoming memoir in his Declassified humor column … And don’t forget to take POLITICO’s weekly news quiz.