Monday, June 23 2025

Athens navigates regional power shifts

Greek government officials are closely monitoring the evolving regional landscape following the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, with particular attention to Turkey’s expanding influence and potential economic implications for Greece.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1273072/athens-navigates-regional-power-shifts

Suicide bomber strikes Greek Orthodox Church in Damascus, at least 20 dead

A powerful explosion at the Mar Elias Greek Orthodox Church in Damascus on Sunday evening has left at least 20 people dead, according to local authorities. The blast was caused by a suicide bomber who detonated inside the church, according to witness reports. 

https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1273171/suicide-bomber-strikes-greek-orthodox-church-in-damascus-at-least-15-dead

Firefighting forces strengthened on Chios, where arson is suspected

A group of arson experts was dispatched by the Fire Department on Chios island, where it will join state security of the Greek police to investigate the fires that have led to several evacuations on the island as of midday Sunday.

https://www.amna.gr/en/article/913085/Firefighting-forces-strengthened-on-Chios–where-arson-is-suspected-

Number of registered unemployed 8.7 pct down in May 2025

In May 2025, the total number of unemployed individuals registered with the Public Employment Service (DYPA) reached 741,006, according to figures released on Friday. This reflects a decrease of 53,746 people (-6.8%) compared to the same month in the previous year (May 2024), and a decrease of 70,318 people (-8.7%) compared to the previous month, April 2025.

https://www.amna.gr/en/article/912576/Number-of-registered-unemployed-87-pct-down-in-May-2025

ATHEX: Bourse posts rebound after long decline

Athinon Avenue put an end to its six-session slide on Friday, securing significant gains for most of its stocks and seeing the benchmark reclaim the 1,800-point mark, with increased turnover largely thanks to the scheduled index rebalancing. This reaction to the sequence of decline in previous days will only prove temporary unless some significant progress is made on the war front toward ending the conflict in the Middle East – otherwise stocks should prepare for more losses.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1273008/athex-bourse-posts-rebound-after-long-decline

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SUNDAY PAPERS

KATHIMERINI: Iran, Greece and Turkey

TO VIMA:  Geopolitical risk: Who pays the bill

REAL NEWS:  Alertness for all probabilities

PROTO THEMA: Greece, the war and Turkey

MONDAY PAPERS:

TA NEA:  Trump’s risk – Iran’s dilemma – Athens’ possible involvement

EFIMERIDA TON SYNTAKTON: Fears of out-of-control escalation

KONTRA NEWS: Nightmarish scenarios regarding a new energy crisis

DIMOKRATIA: It’s a mad mad world

NAFTEMPORIKI: All hell breaks loose


DRIVING THE DAY: IRAN ESCALATION FEARS

KAJA KALLAS SAYS IRAN “POSED A THREAT FOR YEARSTop EU diplomat Kaja Kallas is setting the stage for a gathering of the bloc’s foreign ministers in Brussels today with a reminder that the EU has long opposed Iran’s nuclear ambitions — even if it’s staunchly opposed to any escalation of hostilities in the region.

Persistent threat: In comments shared exclusively with Brussels Playbook, Kallas said that “Iran has posed a threat for many years and the EU has always said that Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon.”

But, she added, “military conflict is unpredictable and the potential for broader escalation is real. I expect EU foreign ministers will … urge all sides to step back and exercise restraint. Nobody knows what will happen next, so diplomacy must return to the center of efforts to prevent further regional escalation.”

Warp speed: Her comments, shared hours before European foreign ministers gather in Brussels, give a sense of the head-spinning pace of events in the Middle East.

Then: Going into the weekend, foreign ministers expected Monday’s Foreign Affairs Council would focus heavily on Israel’s actions in Gaza, which have been subject to scrutiny by Kallas’s European External Action Service.

And now: But then U.S. President Donald Trump decided to intervene in Israel’s campaign against Iran, dropping bunker buster bombs on Iranian nuclear enrichment sites in a move that once again underscored the EU’s awkward position when it comes to the Middle East.

Not on call list: Indeed, while the U.S. informed the U.K. and France of its intention to drop the bombs, there was no call to top EU officials because the bloc doesn’t have its own armed forces, per a Commission spokesperson.

EU finds Israel in breach: There’s no doubt that Israel’s behavior in Gaza remains high on the agenda of the Foreign Affairs Council. Kallas is set to present the findings of her review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which a majority of member countries had demanded. POLITICO’s Jacopo Barigazzi, Gabriel Gavin and Jakob Weizman scooped the contents of that review on Friday, revealing that the EU has found Israel to be in breach of the agreement’s article on humanitarian law.

ICYMI: Israel fired back with a furious repudiation of the review, which it called “outrageous and indecent,” according to the text of Israel’s answer to the EEAS obtained by POLITICO. Read Tim Ross’s story on how Israel-EU relations hit a new low.

Escalation fears dominate: But after the U.S. intervention, EU diplomats and officials acknowledged that Gaza would now be competing for attention at the FAC as European countries fret about the risk of escalation with Iran — not least because Iran’s parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane.

Shifting sands: “The reality is that political — and media attention — has shifted from Gaza to Iran,” said one EU official. “Countries who criticized Israel three weeks ago over Gaza now back it over Iran — Germany being a case in point.”

Stuck: It’s not that EU countries are quietly applauding the U.S.-Israeli action in Iran. But, as one diplomat said, “Consider the EU’s situation. We need the U.S. and who bites the hand that military and economically feeds you?”

Contingency planning: In addition to the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, security agencies are in overdrive trying to predict how and when Iran will retaliate. Options being evaluated include missile strikes against U.S. bases in the Middle East, cyberattacks, terrorist attacks against Western countries and fresh actions by Iran’s proxy partners, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Mixing it up: Indeed, even before the U.S. stepped into the conflict by dropping 11 “bunker buster” bombs on heavily fortified sites, diplomats recognized the risk of Iran overshadowing the gathering. “There are some countries that will mix the two issues [Gaza and Iran],” said one senior EU diplomat. “This is not our approach. We think they should be considered separately. But, of course, you cannot ignore what is happening with Iran.”

Another senior EU diplomat bluntly observed that there was “disunity” even among the countries that support a review of the EU-Israel agreement — and that the Iran strikes put the bloc in a bind with regard to Russia. Iran is one of Russia’s main backers in its war against Ukraine.

Making matters more complicated: EU countries are now split over what consequences the bloc should impose on Israel following its findings. While some are pushing for the EU-Israel Association Agreement to be suspended in part or fully, others — including some of the review’s main backers — say their intention was to send a political signal and persuade Israel to change its behavior in Gaza.

No action expected: Some diplomats now say they expect the EU to take no immediate action on the EU-Israel agreement, reflecting disunity even among those who initially called for the review.

The bottom line: The Middle East continues to confound Europe. Politically, societally and emotionally, the EU remains deeply invested in what happens there. But the level of concern is inversely proportional to the bloc’s influence in a region. Hard power — and military might — currently outweighs diplomacy.

THE LATEST FROM WASHINGTON … Pentagon officials said the U.S. strikes caused “severe damage” to Iran’s nuclear facilities, but were still working to determine the full impact … Trump posted on Truth Social last night that he was open to regime change in Iran, undercutting what seemed to be a coordinated message by his top national security officials … and oil prices surged to the higehst level since Trump returned to office, as energy markets digested the prospect of Tehran disrupting the flow of crude oil supplies out of the Middle East.

Trump pushes back departure for Europe: The president will meet his national security team at the White House on Monday, delaying travel to the NATO summit in The Hague, CNN reported overnight. Trump will now leave for the meeting on Tuesday, the broadcaster said.

VON DER LEYEN FACES REBELLION

WILL VON DER LEYEN’S MAJORITY IMPLODE THIS WEEK? The question is gripping Brussels after Max Griera reported on Friday that the Commission president was facing a rebellion from the heads of political groups in Parliament, who are up in arms over the Commission’s decision to withdraw an anti-greenwashing bill.

Rebellion: It’s the most serious resistance von der Leyen has faced since she returned to the Berlaymont last year, perhaps in her entire Brussels career. Socialists and liberals accuse her of siding with right-wing groups to drop the bill. And they’re threatening to withdraw their support for her Commission. “We are on the brink of an institutional crisis,” Valérie Hayer, chair of the liberal Renew Europe group, told POLITICO.

What the Commission says: That it needs to withdraw the anti-greenwashing file, which is currently up for talks between Parliament and Council, because it’s not compatible with a simplification drive demanded by member countries, according to a statement from the Commission’s spokesperson.

Tug of war: Talks on the bill should have wrapped up on Sunday evening, but a meeting to hash it out between institutions was canceled, two people familiar with the details told POLITICO.

Trilogue axed: “We are hitting the pause button,” a representative of the EU’s Polish presidency told my colleague Marianne Gros. “There are too many doubts and we need clarity from the [European Commission] on its intentions,”

72 hours and counting: The Commission won’t be able to formally withdraw its backing for the bill until Wednesday, when the move would need a sign-off by all 27 commissioners during a College meeting. The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and liberals are hoping they can pressure von der Leyen to climb down.

Warning: If she doesn’t, both groups will withdraw what they call their “protection” from the Commission chief when hard-right groups try to inflict political damage on her, as they did during the Pfizergate scandal. They’d also stop playing ball with the conservative European People’s Party (EPP), the largest group in Parliament, effectively ending her centrist majority.

Fighting words: Withdrawing the bill would mean the Commission was effectively acting as “the political executor of the EPP and the European far right,” Renew MEP Sandro Gozi, who’s also rapporteur of the green claims bill, said in a statement. The Socialists described it on X as “a clear breach of institutional trust between the Parliament and the Commission.”

How we got here: The dispute reflects months of pent-up frustration among Socialists and liberals who ceded crucial ground to the EPP in the last election and feel they’ve been treated poorly ever since. Although the EPP has a written cooperation agreement with centrist groups, they accuse it of increasingly aligning with right-wing groups to push its agenda through Parliament and kill off green files.

What’s next: Stay tuned as Max and Marianne keep reporting on this developing story in the coming days.

EU OPENS ARMS TO CANADA

CANADA’S CARNEY HITS EUROPE … BEFORE TRUMP DOES: Prime Minister Mark Carney is getting red carpet treatment in Brussels today for the signing of a major security and defense partnership with the European Union — before U.S. President Donald Trump rolls in for the NATO Summit in The Hague.

Compare and contrast: Carney’s visit to Brussels will resemble the start of a honeymoon with starry-eyed partners pledging deeper cooperation, without too many demands on one another. Trump’s visit to The Hague has the vibe of a landlord visiting tenants to inform them that the rent is going up — a scenario not unfamiliar to the real estate scion who used to collect rent from his father’s tenants.

Nothing to see here: EU officials and diplomats claim the sequencing, with Carney getting in before Trump, is a pure coincidence. But they also say, often in the same breath, that third countries are lining up to do deals with the Union, Jacopo Barigazzi reports.

Not just window dressing: One EU official characterized the partnership with Canada as “the most far-reaching of its kind,” more ambitious than any similar deal signed with a third country (wink wink, the U.K., which recently inked a similar deal with Brussels).

What’s in it: Everything but the kitchen sink — “support to Ukraine, international peace and crisis management, maritime security, bilateral defense initiatives, cyber, addressing foreign information manipulation, interference, counter-terrorism, arms control, nonproliferation, disarmament, space security, capacity building from partners in security and defense” and more, per the official. “This is as comprehensive a framework as we can offer a third country,” they said.

Access to SAFE: What’s more, the deal is a first step for Canada to access the €150 billion Security Action For Europe (SAFE) funding, allowing it “to negotiate a bilateral agreement with the Commission, which could eventually lead to Canada bidding in joint procurement activities with EU member states.”

NOW READ: Ahead of the NATO summit, POLITICO and our sister publication WELT spoke to more than a dozen current and former European and American policymakers, military officers and academics about what NATO and European security would look like with a lesser role for America. Read it here.

LIBYA IN FOCUS

ROME PUTS LIBYA ON AGENDA — WITH PARIS’S BACKING: Rome has asked for time to be set aside to talk about Libya, which is in the process of becoming a staging ground for Russia after Moscow’s exit from Syria, two diplomats told Jacopo Barigazzi. That’s alarming to several EU countries, especially given that Europe is within easy missile range of the Libyan coast. France, Greece and Malta were among several countries to give Rome’s request a thumbs-up, according to one of the diplomats.

Melting the ice: This is also a sign of warmer relations between French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The two haven’t always been BFFs, to put it mildly. But their meeting in Rome earlier this month provided an opportunity to reset, and the two used the occasion to talk about Libya, per a readout from Rome.

Tracking Russia: The renewed focus on Libya coincides with reports that Russia is shifting its military flights from Syria to Libya, moving everything from equipment to personnel and logistical support. Other reports show that Moscow may have located medium-range launchers and missiles in Libya that could reach southern Europe.

IN OTHER NEWS

EUROPE’S DIGITAL VULNERABILITY: As Donald Trump raises the geopolitical stakes, European leaders are waking up to the fact that Washington has decisive leverage against them: the continent’s near-total dependency on American cloud providers. Mathieu Pollet investigates.

MIGRATION CRACKDOWN: Belgium’s Migration Minister Anneleen Van Bossuyt told the Financial Times that Brussels should use trade and visa policies to pressure less developed countries to take back migrants from Europe.

DONALD TUSK PICKS NEW CHIEF SPOX: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Friday appointed his EU affairs minister, Adam Szłapka, as government spokesperson, filling a role left vacant for 18 months amid claims that poor communications contributed to liberal candidate Rafał Trzaskowski’s defeat in the recent presidential election, Wojciech Kósc writes in to report. However, Szłapka’s links to Tusk will likely make him a target for opposition forces.

U.N. HOPEFUL CALLS OFF BRUSSELS VISIT: International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi canceled plans to attend today’s Foreign Affairs Council after the U.S. strikes on Iran to attend emergency meetings, my colleague Gabriel Gavin hears. It would’ve been a prime opportunity for the 64-year-old Argentine to win support from EU leaders for his ambition to take over as U.N. secretary-general when António Guterres stands down next year.