Monday, December 09 2024

Defense minister unveils plan for missile shield

Greece is fortifying its defense posture in the Aegean Sea, with Defense Minister Nikos Dendias announcing plans for a missile defense shield.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1255575/defense-minister-unveils-plan-for-missile-shield

Cyprus power link tangled in Gordian knot

The ambitious Great Sea Interconnector, designed to link Greece and Cyprus through an undersea electricity cable, is mired in geopolitical tensions and bureaucratic delays, raising questions about its future viability.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1255678/cyprus-power-link-tangled-in-gordian-knot

Greece hails downfall of Assad regime, calls for democratic transition, refugees’ return home

Greece has hailed the downfall of the Assad regime and hopes it will open the door to the return of the millions of Syrian refugees home, a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs says.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1255758/greece-hails-downfall-of-assad-regime-calls-for-democratic-transition-refugees-return-home

Scope upgrades Greece’s rating to BBB and revises the outlook to stable

Scope Ratings GmbH (Scope) has upgraded the Hellenic Republic (Greece)’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt-category ratings to BBB from BBB- in local- and foreign-currency and revised the Outlooks to Stable, from Positive. The short-term issuer ratings have been affirmed at S-2 in local- and foreign-currency, with the Outlooks remaining Stable.

https://www.amna.gr/en/article/868699/Scope-upgrades-Greeces-rating-to-BBB-and-revises-the-outlook-to-stable

Greek economy grew 2.4% in Q3, ELSTAT says

The Greek economy grew by 2.4% in the third quarter of 2024, compared to the corresponding quarter of 2023, according to the national statistics service ELSTAT. At the same time, GDP increased by 0.3% compared to the second quarter of this year.

https://www.amna.gr/en/article/868486/Greek-economy-grew-24-in-Q3–ELSTAT-says

ATHEX: Best week for index in over 18 months

After four consecutive days of growth, the Greek stock market took a break from its rally, but its benchmark still managed to end up in the black thanks to a late surge that overturned an earlier decline. This five-out-of-five over the week led the main index to a new 10-week high. Traders opted for more selective approaches at the end of the week, given that many investors are closing their books for the year and others opt for some window dressing.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1255610/athex-best-week-for-index-in-over-18-months

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SUNDAY PAPERS

KATHIMERINI: Social media to be rated R

TO VIMA:  Liberal democracies threatened: Alert signal for Europe

REAL NEWS:  Changes in banks’ loans and commissions

PROTO THEMA:  Commissions for Bank services to decline up to 50%

MONDAY PAPERS:

TA NEA:  Real estate asset owners: Who is going to pay a smaller ENFIA levy

EFIMERIDA TON SYNTAKTON: Once upon a time there was a country called Syria

KONTRA NEWS: Migrant waves from Syria ahead

DIMOKRATIA: Thunderbolts by former PM and New Democracy leader Karamanlis against PM Mitsotakis

NAFTEMPORIKI: New liquidity lines worth 3,3 bln euro


DRIVING THE DAY: SYRIA FALLOUT

REGIME DOWN: Russia- and Iran-allied Assad, who ruled Syria with an iron fist for almost a quarter of a century, fled Damascus after rebels stormed the Syrian capital on Sunday. Celebrations broke out across the country, amid hopes a new regime could usher in a more peaceful and less oppressive future.

So what now? It looks like a total collapse of Russia’s holdings in Syria may well follow the fall of the 53-year Assad dynasty. Moscow is withdrawing ships and equipment from its port near Tartus after Syrian rebels overran the town. The Khmeimim airbase south of Latakia — a crucial staging ground for Russia’s mercenary missions into Africa — is likely to face the same fate.

For Moscow, the collapse of Assad’s regime is a gut punch, exposing the fact that it’s unable to deal with any conflict beyond Ukraine or to support allies. Polish PM Donald Tusk tweeted that Assad’s fall carried a warning for the Kremlin.

For Europe, the new reality is a head-scratcher. The EU cut off diplomatic ties with Syria in 2011 as a violent crackdown by Assad on anti-government protests escalated into a brutal civil war, which forced millions to flee (with the EU granting over a million of them asylum). In October, POLITICO reported on a push by a group of EU countries, led by Italy, to normalize ties with the Syrian government to facilitate migrant deportations. There was resistance to the idea in other capitals and the Commission — but with Assad gone, there may now be an argument for revising the EU’s relationship with Damascus after all.

European reactions: EU High Representative Kaja Kallas called the fall of the regime “a positive and long-awaited development” that “shows the weakness of Assad’s backers, Russia and Iran.” Writing on X, French President Emmanuel Macron said: “The barbaric state has fallen. At last.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote: “The cruel Assad dictatorship has collapsed. This historic change in the region offers opportunities but is not without risks.” Parliament President Roberta Metsola echoed that sentiment, saying that “what happens in the next hours and days matters.” Read Gabriel Gavin’s round-up.

The big question is, who comes after Assad? The main rebel army Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was once known as the Al-Nusra Front and aligned with al Qaeda (though it has more recently sought to distance itself from its extremist origins). Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has a long history of jihadist militancy and is a former ally of the late Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. (The pair ultimately fell out over tactics and became rivals and bitter enemies, as my colleague Jamie Dettmer reports in this excellent primer.) All this could give pause to any normalization push.

For now, the focus is on the upside. But amid the rejoicing, the U.S. has reportedly carried out “dozens of airstrikes” against Islamic State targets in Syria, while Israel’s military entered a demilitarized buffer zone in the Syrian-controlled Golan Heights saying it aimed to head off any threat from the insurgency.

BONUS: Footage of prisoners being released from Sednaya prison — notorious for its heinous treatment and killings of detainees. Footage of people storming Assad’s former residence was also doing the rounds Sunday. Read about Syrians in BerlinEssenAntwerp and London celebrating Assad’s fall.

TRUMP NAMES HIS PRICE

TRUMP (SORT OF) REASSURES EUROPEANS ON NATO: Fresh from attending the star-studded reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, President-elect Donald Trump used his first interview since winning the U.S. election to once again hold Europe’s feet to the fire on defense and trade.

Just business: Speaking to NBC’s Kristen Welker in a piece that aired Sunday, Trump said Washington would “absolutely” stay in NATO — “if they [allies] pay their bills.”

And if they don’t? Trump would have no problem leaving the alliance, he said during a brief sequence devoted to foreign policy in a 45-minute interview.

On Ukraine: Asked whether he would reduce U.S. support for Ukraine, Trump said “probably,” adding that he was “trying” to end the war — unsuccessfully so far. He huddled not once but twice in Paris with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who received a standing ovation at the Notre Dame event.

After the meetings, Trump claimed in a social media post that Kyiv was ready to make a deal with Moscow to stop the war, and said Russian President Vladimir Putin should make efforts toward negotiating. “There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin,” Trump said. Referring to Putin, he added: “I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act.” Write-up here.

Back to Trump’s NBC interview: The president-elect indicated he isn’t ideologically opposed to NATO — just unsatisfied with its fee structure. That sets him apart from Pete Hegseth, his controversial pick for defense secretary, who has called NATO a “relic” that should be “scrapped.”

But don’t exhale too soon. Trump also hit out at the “disgrace” of Europe “taking advantage” of the U.S. on trade, talking up his love of tariffs, which he said were “beautiful” and would “make us rich.”

Some countries are trying to preempt an inevitable clash. Speaking to Playbook last week, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said he’d floated the idea in Washington of raising the NATO defense spending target to 2.5 percent of GDP, up from the current 2 percent.

Haves and have nots: That would be easy enough for Estonia and other nations in its neighborhood, which already spend well above 2 percent on defense. But it’s a tough ask for chronic low spenders like Belgium (1.2 percent), Italy (1.6 percent) and Germany (1.6 percent), which say their hands are tied by budgetary or economic constraints.

Hence a flurry of proposals on boosting spending. POLITICO’s Jacopo Barigazzi, Laura Kayali and Josh Posaner report that Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius wants the bloc to earmark €100 billion for defense in its next budget. The Financial Times had this report on a push to create a €500 billion defense fund, funded by issuing bonds and open to non-EU countries including the U.K.

But getting from planning to action is proving difficult. Germany’s current leadership remains opposed to joint borrowing for defense. And France’s budget is in limbo, as Macron searches for a prime minister following Michel Barnier’s ouster.

The bottom line: Trump isn’t ready to pull the plug on NATO. But as this insane handshake with Macron shows, he’s also primed to turn the screws on Europe from Day One of his presidency.

Speaking of turning the screws: Will Trump kill AUKUS, the landmark defense agreement between the U.S, U.K. and Australia? Stefan Boscia and Caroline Hug report the deal is in trouble.

UKRAINE’S DEATH TOLL: Breaking with his reluctance to publicize the human toll of the war, President Zelenskyy revealed Sunday that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 wounded since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. He also estimated 600,000 Russians had been killed or wounded. More here from Kyiv-based colleague Veronika Melkozerova.

(FAILING) TO MAKE RUSSIA PAY

SANCTIONS SHOCKER: The EU’s plans to impose a new wave of economic restrictions on Russia are in tatters after negotiators failed to find an agreement in high-stakes talks on Friday. The long-awaited 15th package was rejected by two hawkish member countries, Gabriel Gavin writes in to report.

Latvia and Lithuania — which have advocated for tougher measures against Moscow — exercised their veto over the package, because it extended a provision allowing Western firms to keep working in Russia despite existing sanctions. The clause was initially intended to benefit companies saying they want to divest from Russia but can’t for various reasons. Critics say the loophole is being abused.

What next? EU leaders will meet at the Foreign Affairs Council on Monday next week, where there are hopes to find a workaround. Hungary, which holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, wants to have the package done and dusted to claim a solitary “win” before it gives up the hot seat to Poland at the end of the year. Two diplomats said they expected the Baltic nations to back down in exchange for the derogation being discussed when Warsaw takes over in January, but a last-minute deal could still prove elusive.

LANDSBERGIS EXIT INTERVIEW: The EU loses one of its most vocal advocates of taking a tougher line with Russia and China today, as Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis prepared to exit stage left following an election defeat. He’s succeeded by former intelligence chief Kęstutis Budrys.

Chump change: In an exit interview with my colleagues Gabriel Gavin and Jacopo Barigazzi, Landsbergis said he regretted that Western support for Ukraine had not been ramped up faster or on a larger scale. Former NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg “tried to tackle this with a €100 billion package. Then it went down to €40 billion, and I don’t think we’ve even agreed to that. We have to be talking about serious money — I don’t think Putin, with 8 percent of his GDP going towards the war, is impressed by several hundred million euros.”

What’s next? The grandson of Lithuanian post-Soviet independence figurehead Vytautas Landsbergis, Gabrielius admitted the long shadow of his famous surname had been hard to entirely escape. “It adds some spice to your life,” he said. Now, despite bowing out of frontline politics, he insisted: “There is no Barbados in my calendar at this stage.”

EUROGROUP WELCOMES UK

BRITAIN JOINS EUROZONE FINANCE MINISTERS’ GATHERING: It’s a first since Brexit: The U.K.’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will join euro-area finance ministers in Brussels today in a highly symbolic return to the fold, more than eight years after the U.K. voted to leave the EU.

Big picture: This coincides with a broader reset in EU-U.K. relations as the two sides huddle over defense challenges, the future of Ukraine and how to deal with Trump.

But hold your Champagne. My Financial Services colleagues report that the thaw is mainly symbolic and won’t produce any quick results.

Trump’s shadow: Officials close to Eurogroup chief Paschal Donohoe told the team that Reeves’ visit fits into a broader engagement with Western allies on international economic developments, and has nothing to do with Trump’s election win.

Except … Everyone’s definitely thinking about Trump. In their one-hour session, Reeves and the eurozone ministers will compare notes on how they intend to respond to a potential trade war with the U.S., according to several EU diplomats. “The big message is that the EU and the U.K. are finding each other amidst global turmoil, but I don’t expect any deliverables,” one said.

After Reeves: Finance ministers will talk about the national budget plans that were recently assessed by the European Commission. The elephant in the room is how France will clear its budget mess and comply with the EU’s strict fiscal rules (ministers will no doubt put it more diplomatically).

IN OTHER NEWS

MEET BRUSSELS’ TOP DIPLOMAT: Don’t miss POLITICO’s deeply reported profile of Kaja Kallas, which is packed full of anecdotes — including one about the time Kallas shot down an attempt by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel to hold a summit with Putin. Readissimo.

Callous Kallas? The EU’s new foreign affairs chief has already outraged governments and officials over her decision to boot out her department’s top civil servant, Italian EU veteran Stefano Sannino, my colleagues report.

SÉJOURNÉ TOUTS TELECOMS CONSOLIDATION: European Commissioner for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy Stéphane Séjourné laid out a game plan for rebooting the EU’s economy in an interview with French business daily Les Echos this morning. It included simplifying (but not deregulating) EU legislation, building out renewable energy sources and bringing down the number of telecom operators from around 140 currently to 20 or 30 powerful players “with sufficiently solid shoulders.”

MUSK THAW? Meanwhile, in an interview with the FT, the EU’s new tech boss Henna Virkkunen struck a conciliatory tone when it comes to X owner Elon Musk, saying she would not single out any company accused of breaching EU rules.

CHILLING EFFECT: The practice of using lawsuits to silence journalists, activists and public watchdog organizations is on the rise in Europe, according to a new report. Write-up here.

MEANWHILE, IN SWEDEN: Like other socialist parties in Europe, Sweden’s Social Democrats are struggling in traditional blue-collar heartlands. Charlie Duxbury reports from the town of Uddevalla, where the center-left party is trying to turn things around.