Poll shows New Democracy’s lead over PASOK narrowing
A poll released on Monday showed that the ruling New Democracy (ND)’s lead over PASOK has narrowed compared to previous surveys, dropping to 9.7 points.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/1251518/poll-shows-new-democracys-lead-over-pasok-narrowing
PM: Greece on right track, not looking back
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis sent a powerful political message at an event hosted by the Ministry of Development on Monday, about the country’s economic trajectory, firmly rejecting any return to the financial crisis that ravaged the country in the previous decade.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1251517/pm-greece-on-right-track-not-looking-back
Changes in PASOK-Movement for Change announced
According to Androulakis’ decision, a nine-member political coordination centre is established whose members are: Haris Doukas, Pavlos Geroulanos, Anna Diamantopoulou, Nikos Christodoulakis, Milena Apostolaki, Thanassis Glavinas, Myrto Samara, Katerina Solomou and Yiannis Vardakastanis.
https://www.amna.gr/en/article/856879/Changes-in-PASOK-Movement-for-Change-announced
Infrastructure Minister Staikouras visits Supreme Court Prosecutor Adilini over state of Greek railways
Infrastructure and Transport Minister Christos Staikouras on Monday visited Supreme Court Prosecutor Georgia Adilini in order to submit data concerning the state in the country’s railway network and provide information on a supplementary lawsuit filed following new incidents involving the railways.
ATHEX: Recovery of stocks needs more support
The steady recovery of prices at the Greek bourse noted last week did not continue on Monday, as Athinon Avenue experienced a small decline on rather low daily turnover. While very few had expected an S&P rating upgrade for Greece last Friday, which has now been put off till spring, the mood in the market points to the necessity of a strong push through some significant corporate deal or a state initiative if the benchmark is to escape the 1,400-1,450-point bracket.
https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1251530/athex-recovery-of-stocks-needs-more-support
KATHIMERINI: Greece persists
TA NEA: Civil war children (and more) return: Families get back together
EFIMERIDA TON SYNTAKTON: FinMin Hatzidakis pledges the largest sell-out of state assets after the Memorandum era
RIZOSPASTIS: Greek Communist Party tables amendment for the restoration of Christmas and Easter bonuses for public servants and pensioners
KONTRA NEWS: PASOK is showing the way in the center-left
DIMOKRATIA: 4 out of 10 businessmen are poor
NAFTEMPORIKI: Tax office now has a “digital eye” on the movement of goods
DRIVING THE DAY: A TALE OF 2 MONEY MEETINGS
IMF AND BRICS MEET ON OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE WORLD: In Washington, the West will show it has defied inflation. In Russia, Vladimir Putin will show he has defied isolation. China’s choices will loom large at both summits.
PUTIN HOSTS BRICS IN KAZAN: Putin is gathering his friends on the banks of the Volga river in the city of Kazan today for a summit of the BRICS countries that will last until Thursday, Camille Gijs writes in to report. The club, founded in 2006 by Brazil, Russia, India and China and joined later by South Africa, welcomed four new members earlier this year: Iran, the UAE, Egypt and Ethiopia. This year’s summit will be the first opportunity to bring them all together.
Who’s coming: Among those making the trip are Indian PM Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa and, as a guest, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is seeking entry to the club. (Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had to pull out after falling and suffering a “small brain haemorrhage.”)
Also coming to Kazan: U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, who reportedly plans to meet with Putin on Thursday — sparking outcry in Kyiv.
Economic power, political ambitions: BRICS accounts for about half the world’s population and more than 35 percent of global GDP. Yet it’s also a “rubric for rebellion,” writes Foreign Policy’s Keith Johnson. “Outside of Washington, and the G-7 and the European Union, it is hard to appreciate just how much resentment there is of Western hypocrisy and hegemony, all mortar helping to bond the loose membership of BRICS.”
Taking on the dollar: Putin’s ambition will be again to challenge the Western and U.S.-led view of the world order, as Russia’s and Iran’s economies are isolated by a raft of American and European sanctions. Putin is expected to push for an alternative platform for international payments (after Russia was banned from SWIFT following its invasion of Ukraine).
But China’s aims are different. “The intrigue is who will appear at the end of the day in the court of public opinion as the real host, the leader of BRICS,” said Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, director at Rīga Stradiņš University’s China Studies Center. “China uses BRICS to give it a mandate to push global visions and post-Western vision,” she said.
DEALING WITH DEBT IN THE DISTRICT: In Washington, D.C., the high-level IMF meeting kicks into full gear today, and public debt has already emerged as a key focus of this week’s discussions, Geoffrey Smith reports.
Unreal numbers: Global public debt is set to hit an unimaginable $100 trillion this year, and is on course to top 100 percent of world GDP by 2030, the IMF said last week. More gory details are due today in the IMF Economic Outlook 2024, which tracks the main trends in the global economy for the next few years (more on that in Suzanne Lynch’s Global Playbook).
Pandemic, then Putin: European countries relied on subsidies to overcome challenges in recent years. Putin’s aggression and China’s ascent are inspiring protectionism. This, combined with the consensus on the need for investment in boosting industry, makes the debt problem seem even more intractable.
HOW IT ALL TIES TOGETHER: Even poorer countries are seeing rising debt, and they’ve had to ask the IMF for help. These are exactly the countries that might find the idea of an alternative world order — perhaps like that “rubric for rebellion” the BRICS have in mind — especially enticing.
SPEAKING OF PUTIN’S ASSETS:The U.K. plans to lend Ukraine £2.26 billion to purchase essential military equipment to fend off Putin’s troops. The loan will be paid off by the profits generated by frozen Russian assets — the first time Britain has set out its contribution to a wider package announced this year by the G7 and the EU. Bloomberg has more details here.
AND ICYMI: Reports that thousands of North Korean soldiers may soon join Russia to fight in Ukraine are reviving talk of sending European troops to help Kyiv. My colleague Stuart Lau reported Monday that NATO has asked Seoul to brief it on reports that North Korea is sending troops to Russia.
MOLDOVA POST-MORTEM
PRO-EU FORCES WIN IN MOLDOVA … BARELY: With all the votes finally counted, the ayes have it in Moldova’s referendum on joining the EU, but by the tiniest of margins: Just 50.39 percent.
It ain’t ova for Moldova: The knife-edge referendum won’t stand in the way of Moldova’s path to joining the bloc, Brussels’ top brass vowed. In a statement after the results came through Monday, the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell blamed Russia for trying to undermine the voting process and vowed that “the EU and Moldova share a common future.”
Cash for EU clash: Pro-Western President Maia Sandu declared victory in the poll and accused Moscow of spending more than €100 million to bribe voters in the country — one of Europe’s least wealthy nations. But she will now have to survive a second-round presidential vote against a pro-Kremlin candidate, and her party must win next year’s parliamentary election to stay the course.
Things that are simultaneously true: Moldova was subject to “massive malign interference” efforts, as the European Network of Election Monitoring Organizations put it, including misinformation and vote-buying. (One expert who spoke to my colleagues Gabriel Gavin and Eva Hartog estimated that 20 percent of the votes were corrupted.) Nonetheless,the razor-thin majority is hardly a ringing endorsement for the EU. Putin’s push got traction, fairly or unfairly.
A majority is a majority is a majority: Then again, you don’t need a ringing endorsement to enter — or leave — the Union. Sweden joined the EU based on a 52/48 percent vote, and Brexiteers won with the same majority there, as Moldova’s ex-Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu noted to Moldovan media. “Even a narrow victory is still a win.”
Expat influence: That narrow majority was fueled by a Moldovan diaspora that has already embraced the West, rather than the people still living in the country: 77 percent of those living abroad backed EU accession.
Or maybe all politics is still just local: The Wall Street Journal’s Matthew Luxmoore heard from many Moldovans that they support the EU, but weren’t so hot on the idea of amending the constitution in a perceived “political move” by Sandu. “Wouldn’t be so quick to conclude that the country is split on the core issue of EU support,” he said on X.
NEXT UP — GEORGIA: The crisis comes just days before voters head to the polls in Georgia, where the ruling party has presided over a Russian-style crackdown on democracy and vowed to ban the entire opposition if reelected with a majority. With the country’s EU candidacy frozen over the backsliding, Brussels faces a bruising week if a second former Soviet Republic looks like slipping back into the Kremlin’s grasp. Read the inside story here from Gabriel and Eva.
Next up — us? “It is true that you can damage the democratic process in a small country more easily,” Sandu said. “But once these practices are tested in smaller countries, they can be tried in other countries.”
MIGRATION
MELONI UNDETERRED ON ALBANIA DEPORTATION CENTER: Italy’s right-wing government, led by PM Giorgia Meloni, approved a decree on Monday to overcome the legal obstacles to Rome’s controversial migration deal with Albania, Elena Giordano reports.
You say the (safe) word: The decree, which will automatically transfer into law, will allow the Italian government to designate a list of “safe countries” that can be used as destinations for asylum-seekers who are deported from Italy.
Reminder: A Rome court ruled Friday that the first group of migrants sent to Albania as part of the deal could not be detained offshore because their countries of origin could not be considered safe.
IN/OUT
PLOTTING THEIR POST-COMMISSION FUTURE: Rivals in the European Commission, Thierry Breton and Margrethe Vestager, are running in different directions from the spotlight.
VESTAGER wants OUT: The outgoing competition czar told a biographer she has “no plans” to return to Danish politics.
More dish: In the biography, Vestager also reveals her true feelings about Breton, her advice to Ursula von der Leyen and her gripes about POLITICO. Pro Competition subscribers can read a summary of them, in English, in POLITICO’s Fair Play newsletter.
BRETON wants IN: Talk about provocative. After abruptly resigning when it became clear that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen didn’t want him back for a second term, the former single market chief is palling around with her nemesis, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
#Preparedness for what, exactly? “Excellent meeting with 🇭🇺 @PM_ViktorOrban in Budapest today, ahead of the US elections that will mark a new era,” Breton posted on X Monday, adding the hashtag #Preparedness. (Orbán is certainly prepared for the Donald Trump era, pledging to pop Champagne if the former U.S. president makes a triumphant return.)
Just look at those grins: “The EU strategic autonomy is a never-ending fight 🇪🇺,” Breton said in the same X post. “It needs to be constantly reinforced, with everyone in Europe, to become a reality.” Given Orbán’s embrace of Chinese investment and refusal to quit Russian gas, one might think that Breton would want to give the Hungarian PM a stern lecture. But given the gleeful expression on both men’s faces, it’s hard to imagine that’s what played out.
Go on, M. Breton: In a statement to Brussels media, including to POLITICO’s Elisa Braun, Breton, now in the private sector, said he met with Orbán in the context of Hungary’s Council presidency. “We must be prepared” to support Europe’s defense, automotive and clean-tech sectors, he said. “I will continue engaging with leaders to ensure this remains a key priority for our prosperity, for our security and for our democracy. For our future and our children’s future.”
We’re sure you will: “I will keep you posted,” Breton concluded.
SPEAKING OF HUNGARY …
ORBÁN’S CHALLENGER NOT FULLY SOLD ON EU: Tisza Party leader Péter Magyar, the most serious threat to Viktor Orbán’s power in 14 years, is building his campaign ahead of an expected national election in spring 2026 on pro-EU messages. Yet it’s clear from his interview with Max Griera that, just like Orbán, Magyar is not fully sold on Brussels.
Orbán’s disciple turned foe: Magyar started his political career as a member of the governing Fidesz party; he was married to Justice Minister Judit Varga, and rubbed shoulders with people at the highest echelons of Orbán’s government. Magyar said he had tried to change Fidesz’s course from within. Ultimately, Magyar said, he realized it’s “not possible.”
At least he’s honest? Asked about fears that he could slide toward an Orbán-like regime if he gets into government, Magyar conceded: “At the end of the day, the danger is always there … there is no guarantee” — because “power corrupts.”
How to avoid becoming authoritarian 101: Magyar wants to impose a two-term limit for the Hungarian prime ministership and to restore institutional checks and balances. He has also asked his team to help him “stay grounded,” he said.
Ending with a joke(?): “I have a list of dozens of behavioral signs pinned to my wall which can indicate that a leader is turning erratic and authoritarian: I asked my colleagues to warn me if they see more than a few of them in my behavior,” he said. “So far, they have mentioned two or three, and I am very much mindful of that.”
IN OTHER NEWS
DOUBLE TROUBLE ON SPENDING: EU spending watchdogs have identified a high and increasing risk that taxpayers will pay twice to fund the same projects. Read more from Gregorio Sorgi, for Financial Services Pros.
GOING NUCLEAR IN ITALY: Giorgia Meloni wants to reverse Italy’s historic anti-nuclear stance — meet the influencer who’s helping.
GOING NUCLEAR IN CANADA: Mark Carney, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau’s economic adviser and a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, says he plans to enter elected politics. But Carney didn’t specify when, where or what job he wants, telling Liberal Party MP Nate Erskine-Smith on the Uncommons podcast he was “taking steps” toward running for office.
Trudeau in trouble: It comes as MPs from Trudeau’s Liberal Party are privately urging the prime minister to step aside in favor of a new leader, and some of the would-be candidates for the job are making their intentions clearer, the Toronto Star reports.
STRASBOURG CORNER
WEATHER IN STRASBOURG: 16C, cloudy.
METSOLA NOTCHES WIN IN POWER STRUGGLE WITH VDL: The presidents of the Parliament and Commission reached a tentative deal on their future relationship at a meeting in Strasbourg Monday evening, Eddy Wax and Max Griera report.The pair announced they’d agreed on “new principles,” paving the way to a final deal, most of which favor the Parliament. “It was tough negotiations, but there was goodwill on both sides and we found a way forward on something that has been stuck for years,” said a Metsola spokesperson.
Watchdog wants new teeth: Metsola has been pushing to beef up her institution’s powers to scrutinize the executive. The Parliament wanted to strike a political deal on the broad outline before voting on von der Leyen’s new Commission later this winter, to maximize leverage.
The Commission’s pledges include commitments to get more commissioners showing up in Parliament; a larger role for MEPs on how EU money is spent; and a stronger right to propose ideas for new EU legislation, as well as to “explore” how MEPs could get better intel on international agreements the Commission strikes. There are also promises from the Commission to limit the ways it bypasses MEPs to enact laws.
What VDL got: A promise that the Parliament’s tweaking of its internal rules would be “predictable” — when it ends up impacting the Commission.